Matched Betting Discussion [OT] Discussion about Matched Betting II {Beginners Guide in 1st Post}

rninja

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Yeah could be that, they were both around 99% will try one at lower cheers
Edit: Hmm dunno... tried one at only 97% and still it would only allow £5... not going to try any lower and lose too much in QL... Bit of a newbie question (from an oldie) do bookies know when their odds are higher than in Smarkets etc? like when over 100%??
Yes, the big bookies will definitely know when their book is 'overbroke' I.e. There is no profit margin in their odds at over 100%. They will have an algorithm to pick out those out of line odds, and traders overseeing the odds.

At Coral, for example, you will have a customer profile with a stake factor on certain odds, which may differ on sports depending on what odds you've taken so far.
 

jkg-jkg

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Ladbrokes has got £10 risk-free on the 13:50 Newbury today and Paddy Power have got a Bet £10 get a price boost with a max bet of £100 ;)
They also have a £10 risk free on Arsenal v Spurs tomorrow (not on 1x2 though)
 
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NRS

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Logged on to PP this morning , to realise that I've had the best win of my 11 months MB.

Had a Power Up from earlier this week so placed a £100 bet on Southampton to win yesterday. They went 2 Up, so PP paid out, and then Man. Utd. came back to get a draw, so my lay bet also won. Total profit= £505.26!!! :)

Happy Christmas to me!
 

homie

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Logged on to PP this morning , to realise that I've had the best win of my 11 months MB.

Had a Power Up from earlier this week so placed a £100 bet on Southampton to win yesterday. They went 2 Up, so PP paid out, and then Man. Utd. came back to get a draw, so my lay bet also won. Total profit= £505.26!!! :)

Happy Christmas to me!

Nice one. And well done for not being tempted to cash out at 2-1
 
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Lizziew24

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Talking of 2-up, I backed spurs to win on 365 but current score is 4-2 to arsenal. Betfair says my profit would be be £23.33 if I cashed out now. I know you shouldn’t cash out, unless the team you back go 2-up and the other team come back into it. Just can’t get my head around it!
 

rninja

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Talking of 2-up, I backed spurs to win on 365 but current score is 4-2 to arsenal. Betfair says my profit would be be £23.33 if I cashed out now. I know you shouldn’t cash out, unless the team you back go 2-up and the other team come back into it. Just can’t get my head around it!
Hi, you backed Spurs to win at Bet365 (the bookie) and layed Spurs at Betfair as a matched bet. Spurs only went ONE goal up at anytime in the match (they were 2-1 up at one point). Therefore, for your bet does not qualify for 2up on this occasion.
Your exchange account (Betfair) is offering you the option to cashout of your original lay bet by backing Spurs at Betfair. However, since Spurs were not 2Up in this match - re-backing Spurs would have result ed in a loss.

People re-back their team if they the go 2 goals up, as the bookie will payout regardless of the result if Spurs had gone 2-0, 3-1, etc.
2up effectively gives you a chance to lock-in profit by re-backing when your team go 2Up.

Only re-back your team if they go two goals up.

I personally just back, lay and hope.
 
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georginauk

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so guys... silly question, but how much do you guys put down for mug bets? Would a very low bet still flag me as a Mbetter?
 

Jon

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so guys... silly question, but how much do you guys put down for mug bets? Would a very low bet still flag me as a Mbetter?
I just do the same again. so if i bet £20 i do a £20 mug afterwards
 

georginauk

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I just do the same again. so if i bet £20 i do a £20 mug afterwards
isn't that "losing" £20, then? I mean, if I bet £20 with a free bet and get £6 profit, if I then bet £20 I may win or lose, but chances are I will end up with a -£14 balance, no?
 

Jon

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isn't that "losing" £20, then? I mean, if I bet £20 with a free bet and get £6 profit, if I then bet £20 I may win or lose, but chances are I will end up with a -£14 balance, no?
No as you lay it off so you would lose maybe 0.30p, probably less
 

georginauk

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AAAAAAAAAAAAAAH ok, can you believe it has taken me TWO MONTHS to get it? so basically you a mug bet is still a bet where you lay as well just not take any offers of a free bet or something like that, right?? I have been thinking all this time a mug bet was just a regular bet that you placed so it was always money lost!!!
 
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rninja

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Re: mug bets. I'm of the belief these days that so-called mug bets may be a red herring, as you're still clearly taking a close odds match which is likely to be on good value odds. So is this really helping to preserve an account?
If you're losing 30p from backing and laying a mug bet, why not spend that 30p on a random ACCA or request a bet boost?
 

georginauk

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Re: mug bets. I'm of the belief these days that so-called mug bets may be a red herring, as you're still clearly taking a close odds match which is likely to be on good value odds. So is this really helping to preserve an account?
If you're losing 30p from backing and laying a mug bet, why not spend that 30p on a random ACCA or request a bet boost?

mmmm ok, I haven't even started on ACCAs and bet boost so you literally lost me mid sentence! haha thank you for the answer, though... I will keep it simply for now as I am still doing the joining offers, but once I finish those I will take your advise into account.
 

rninja

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mmmm ok, I haven't even started on ACCAs and bet boost so you literally lost me mid sentence! haha thank you for the answer, though... I will keep it simply for now as I am still doing the joining offers, but once I finish those I will take your advise into account.

Cool. Doing the mug bet strategy is still not bad advice, but I'm wondering more and more about its validity for protecting from gubbings.

This is all my own opinion, but an interesting discussion point :)
 

jkg-jkg

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Re: mug bets. I'm of the belief these days that so-called mug bets may be a red herring, as you're still clearly taking a close odds match which is likely to be on good value odds. So is this really helping to preserve an account?
If you're losing 30p from backing and laying a mug bet, why not spend that 30p on a random ACCA or request a bet boost?
The offers from a bookie are to get you to place more bets with them. If you bet on Man U v Arsenal to get an offer and then a close match on Arsenal v Spurs as a mug, then this probably won't get flagged. However, if you are betting on a Danish second division match because it is a close match then this is going to stick out.
 

Jon

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Betfred got a nice £30 for £10 offer on the snooker at the moment
 

rninja

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How does normal betting usually work? Bet on the team with the bigger odds?
E.g.
Team 1: 2.5
Team 2: 1.8

Back team 1 to win
Hi, do you mean in terms of mug betting in the context of matchdd betting (to avoid getting gubbed), or do you mean how do betting odds work in general?
 

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