Matched Betting Discussion Cheltenham Festival 2022 Matched Betting Offers

Cas

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i might just book thursday and friday .

what day is popular for offers?
 

rninja

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I'd say that all 4 days are equally good, but Tuesday and Friday are perhaps the more prestigious days with the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup respectively.
 
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Steph1977

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I don't want to rain on anyone's parade - I've done the last two Cheltenham's and they've been very kind to me. However, it's easy to get carried away when reading about people's big profit margins when you are brand new to MB.

Horse Racing can give fantastic MB returns, but it's also the sport that is most likely to get you gubbed with a bookie. There is always a mass gubbing by bookies after Cheltenham, always.

If you're new to MB, aren't confident with how Horse Racing bets work (if you don't know what Rule 4 means, then see that as a sign you need to a bit more research) or if you don't have much of a racing profile already established, then I recommend setting your sights lower than some of the numbers that have been mentioned in this thread.

Match Betting and Cheltenham is a long game - you don't have to go nuts on your first one, use this as an opportunity to find your feet, that way you'll be there for next years too :)

As for other events, yes, World Cup will almost certainly be 'big', but as it's spread over a longer period of time it's less intense.
Just reading through this post what is rule 4? I've been doing quite a lot of racing bets but I've still not heard of rule 4.
 

rninja

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Rule 4 is where a horse is declared a non-runner in a race, if the withdrawn horse is priced at 14/1 (15.00) or below then the bookmaker makes a Rule 4 deduction to the odds of all the remaining horses in a race. The exchange also makes a reduction to the lay odds called a reduction factor.

Here's my manuall calculator for how I'd tackle it:

- I've backed my horse for £10 at 5/1 (6.00) and layed at 6.00 at the exchange
- Then, another horse priced at 8/1 gets declared a non-runner runner
- This is a 10% rule 4 deduction
- So if I take 10% from my 5/1 then I've got a 9/2 (5.50) shot.
- i know that the exchange will Calculate a reduction factor, which will be around the same amount

Then I sit back and chill :)

Just remember that the lower priced the horse withdrawn is - Then the higher percentage rule 4 deduction applied.

This is why I think it's so important to understand the numbers of what your are backing and laying.
 
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jkg-jkg

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Rule 4 is typically a bigger issue if you have placed the back bet but not yet laid because you need to do that Rule 4 calc to calculate the new lay.

If you have laid then the exchange typically does a similar reduction. Having said that there can be different rules in how Rule 4 is calculated and sometimes the exchanges do not apply a full Rule 4 reduction if there has been more than one horse pull out (this is particularly true if the horse is pulled out at the start - e.g. if it refuses to go in the stalls)
 
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Pbrail

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Yeah, Rule 4 (or sometimes just mentioned as R4) isn't difficult to work around in principle. The most irritating time is when there is a gap between bookies and exchanges updating their prices. In an ideal world they'd both update almost immediately so you'd have to be very unlucky to get caught out on a Lay bet, but if there's a gap of 5-10 minutes with the Exchanges catching up then you have to do some repair work with your math.

It can also make a difference on certain offers, BetFair is one I can think of where you get a free bet if your horse wins at odds of 4.0, however that's based on the starting price, so if a R4 is applied it can potentially mess up qualifying bets.
 

Karonher

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On the basis that time off is not an option - nor are early morning bets - is it still worth doing Cheltenham?

All I will be able to do is the normal checks on PA and bets from them.
 

jkg-jkg

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On the basis that time off is not an option - nor are early morning bets - is it still worth doing Cheltenham?

All I will be able to do is the normal checks on PA and bets from them.
If you can do a normal horse bet during the week then yes, if not then it is going to be difficult. There are the odd risk free offers which may be possible to do.
 
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Hezzy

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Just looking at the Friday racingoffers - this is tricky! Everything moves so quickly!!!!
 

NRS

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Some very useful advice on this thread. I've got 1 day's leave which I have to use next month or I'll lose it, so I think I'll book the Friday off. I'll also be working from home on the Thursday. I probably won't be in a position to take advantage of all of the offers this year, but I won't worry too much about it-there will be one every year!
 

Hezzy

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Warming up nicely, practicing some each ways etc and stakes growing with confidence. Between me and other half we are pushing on for £1k since jan 1st. Can’t believe. Read about this for so long without diving in. Bring on Cheltenham.
 

Jon

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Thinking today about the lay out of the offers for Cheltenham

obviously, we don't know for sure but generally I find the Most/Best offers tend to be on the first and last day so those with a smaller kitty should have enough time to hammer day 1 > withdraw > have access to their money again on Friday

Don't mistake the above for there being no money to be made on day 2 and 3 cos...

giphy.gif
 
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Jon

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Just working on some other content around Cheltenham and I was reminded of this

The Profit Accumulator forum has a thread dedicated to profits made at the festival, in which 185 responses were posted. The stats look like this:

  • The combined amount won from 185 people was £173,182.
  • The average amount made was £936.12 per person.
  • The approximate hourly wage (based on working six hours a day) is £39.00 an hour.
  • You would need to do 5.8 hours at minimum wage (or 11.8 hours if you’re an apprentice!) to make the equivalent hourly amount.
 

homie

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Sky are doing money back as a free bet if your horse loses on the first race each day. Thats a pretty good place to start and one that can be backed and laid in the morning before work.
 
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ted

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Have wanted to post this for a while. I seen a post along the same lines but forgot to question it.

If there is a race with for example 6 horses.
And I use offers with 6 different bookies to back each horse once and lay them at the same exchange. Do I save money out of it? I was convinced I ended up better off a while back when I had a few horses in one race.
 

jkg-jkg

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Sky are doing money back as a free bet if your horse loses on the first race each day. Thats a pretty good place to start and one that can be backed and laid in the morning before work.
As it is guaranteed then there are two strategies. 1) back and lay as normal for as small a QL as poss and have 0 return if the horse wins but a free bet to cash in for £16 if it loses, or 2) just cover the £4 loss on the free bet (tbh with so many races and lots of long odds horses I was getting £18 back from my free bets but £4 is a good figure to go for) and get a good return on the bet if it does come in - last year the early races did not have any odds on horses and one of the favourites did come in. That Strategy 2 does give a bit of flexibility as you can back early and lay nearer the time so reverting to the first strategy if the odds have moved in your favour. Strategy 2 is more risky but I made £120 on that last year rather than the £64 I would have with Strategy 1.
 

rninja

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Have wanted to post this for a while. I seen a post along the same lines but forgot to question it.

If there is a race with for example 6 horses.
And I use offers with 6 different bookies to back each horse once and lay them at the same exchange. Do I save money out of it? I was convinced I ended up better off a while back when I had a few horses in one race.

Hi,
The exchange will combines liabilities in the same race, which will reduce your float needed. This will not same you money per se. However, you will get a commission break, I.e. save commission that you would have paid on the winning lay bets.
 
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Hezzy

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Just working on some other content around Cheltenham and I was reminded of this

The Profit Accumulator forum has a thread dedicated to profits made at the festival, in which 185 responses were posted. The stats look like this:

  • The combined amount won from 185 people was £173,182.
  • The average amount made was £936.12 per person.
  • The approximate hourly wage (based on working six hours a day) is £39.00 an hour.
  • You would need to do 5.8 hours at minimum wage (or 11.8 hours if you’re an apprentice!) to make the equivalent hourly amount.
Nice stats @Jon
Can’t wait
 

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