Coronavirus Discussion So.... The Coronavirus / COVID-19

Jon

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There has been a lot of talk on local radio about London's infection rate being out of control so I suspect a London lockdown is coming.
Yeah just saw that flash up on the news.

Infection rate is FAR more important than infection numbers at the moment,

I think Leeds might hit local lockdown tonight
 
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Jon

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Leeds likely to face further curbs later - city council
Leeds is likely to face further restrictions from midnight, including a ban on households mixing, its city council leader says.
Judith Blake says she expects Leeds will be made an "area of intervention", meaning "more household restrictions along the lines of those already in force across three of the West Yorkshire districts in Bradford, Kirkless and Calderdale".
The inclusion of Leeds - which has a population of 793,000 - in local lockdown measures would mean more than 16.2 million people are living under local restrictions in the UK.


gah
 

j4v3d

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Leeds is likely to face new restrictions from midnight in the fight against Covid-19, including a ban on households mixing, its city council leader has said.

Judith Blake said she expected Leeds will be made an “area of intervention”, meaning “more household restrictions along the lines of those already in force across three of the West Yorkshire districts in Bradford, Kirkless and Calderdale”.

She told reporters: “We expect them to come in from midnight.”

The addition of Leeds’ 793,000 population would take the number of people living under local restrictions to more than 16.2 million people across the UK.

Tom Riordan, chief executive of Leeds City Council, said: “What we are trying to do is give a simple message – you shouldn’t really mix with other households.”

He added: “I think we know from the experience of Leicester, Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire that when these restrictions are brought in they do not tend to be lifted after a week or two.”
 

Jon

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giphy.gif
 

Jon

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this is like a national lockdown in piecemeal format
 

Jon

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Main Points from today's ONS data

  • An estimated 103,600 people (95% credible interval: 85,600 to 123,400) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 13 to 19 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 500 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 600 to 1 in 400).
  • The estimate shows the number of infections has increased in recent weeks.
  • In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in all age groups, with the current rates highest in the 17 to 24 years age group.
  • There is evidence of higher infection rates in the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, London and North East; both West and East Midlands are recently showing a small increase.
  • During the most recent week (13 to 19 September 2020), we estimate there were around 1.75 (95% credible interval: 1.31 to 2.30) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 9,600 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 7,100 to 12,600).
  • The estimate shows that the incidence rate for England has increased in recent weeks.
  • In England, between 26 April and 08 September, 6.2% of people tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test, suggesting they had the infection in the past; the percentage of people testing positive for antibodies is higher in London than in the East Midlands, the South East and the South West of England.
  • During the most recent week (13 to 19 September 2020), we estimate that 10,800 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 4,400 to 20,200), equating to 1 in 300 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 700 to 1 in 200).
  • We have extended the survey to Northern Ireland; during the most recent two weeks (6 to 19 September 2020), we estimate that 0.35% of people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.11% to 0.84%), which is around 1 in 300 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 900 to 1 in 100).
 

homie

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Whoa. Back the bus up a minute!

Did Dominic Raab just say tests are only 7% accurate?
 

EdibleDormouse

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Whoa. Back the bus up a minute!

Did Dominic Raab just say tests are only 7% accurate?
To be fair, Raab couldn't add 2 + 2 with a calculator. I think he means there's a 7% error rate or thereabouts. I'm sure I've read that somewhere credible (Raab isn't credible).
 

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I think what he's trying to say is that if you test loads of people at airports that don't have symptoms, you will only catch 7% of people that are infected because the remaining passengers who are incubating the virus aren't yet lurgified enough to test positive. But there again, it's Dominc Raab, so who knows!
 

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I think what he's trying to say is that if you test loads of people at airports that don't have symptoms, you will only catch 7% of people that are infected because the remaining passengers who are incubating the virus aren't yet lurgified enough to test positive. But there again, it's Dominc Raab, so who knows!
Which then begs the question why people who don't have symptoms but need to test for work etc are getting tests to prove they don't have it yet they might have it! I don't know what to think anymore! o_O
 

Topaz

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Which then begs the question why people who don't have symptoms but need to test for work etc are getting tests to prove they don't have it yet they might have it! I don't know what to think anymore! o_O

Quite agree, it's daft.
Also, the test itself is only 70% accurate, so there are people walking around thinking their negative test proves they don't have it when they do, which is why the rules say that you should isolate if you have symptoms, even if you test negative.
Also the positive tests aren't accurate in showing current infection. Because they are so sensitive, they can't tell the difference between live and dead virus. So that positive test today could be the result of an infection weeks or months ago shedding dead virus. So you then isolate for 14 days when you don't have to.
 
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Jon

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Previous 7 days and today:

DateTests ProcessedPositiveDeathsPositive %
21/09/2020246,1054,368111.77
22/09/2020213,9534,926372.3
23/09/2020240,5896,178372.57
24/09/2020263,3656,634402.52
25/09/2020268,5076,874352.56
26/09/2020292,4426,042342.07
27/09/2020257,5895,693172.21
Today266,2844,044131.52

I don’t even know what to think at the moment? Have the changes that Boris made actually started to make a difference?

Ventilator numbers still going up a bit though
 

Jon

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Chris Whitty happy talk tomorrow afternoon!!
 

Jon

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7,143 new cases recorded in UK
There have been 7,143 new cases recorded in the UK in a 24-hour period, according to new figures.
It's the highest number of new daily cases since mass testing began - although experts believe daily cases were far higher in the spring.
It brings the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases to 439,013.
 

MIch21

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I was away for a few days in North Wales and was told to leave today...only to leave on a train with only two carriages with what seemed to be the whole of North Wales squash on the train - you would think they would have put more carriages on to get the people out.
 

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