Anyone follow any sports tipster? (Jon's Journey to brokesville!)

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Jon

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Well I've got my email through with my 5 tips for today.

I've placed the bets

I'll post the results later this afternoon
 

Cas

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Good luck will be interesting
 

Jon

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Latest Update

Investment for betting £12
Day 1
15:30 Kelso - Highland Hunter - 4.33 - £6 Stake WON
16:05 Kelso - Shantaluze - 2.20 - £6 Stake WON
Profit Minus Investment £27.20

Day 2
13:35 Huntingdon - Django Django - £4 Stake - LOSS
13:45 Lingfield - Ambient - £4 Stake - WIN (£9.50)
15:15 Huntingdon - Protek Des Flos- £4 Stake - LOSS
16:00 Lingfield - Attain - £6 Stake - WIN (£18)
Profit Minus Investment - £46.70

 

auntygeek

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SO SO SO many things you need to consider if you are interested in making profit from a betting portfolio this way.

1) Affiliate tipsters are a well known problem - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36580678

2) Horse tipsters you need to look at making profit over the month or even quarter, let alone the day or the week. It's a very low win rate. You could go days with every bet losing.

3) People lie about results.

4) Do you have the mental fortitude to cope with losing spells? It's not a perfectly even trajectory of profit (see #2 and the graph below)

5) You need to follow someone for months to get a sense of their consistency and a real sense of the results. Horse tipsters in particular - especially pricewise - are so popular that the price sinks as soon as the tips are released. Therefore the average person following won't get anywhere near the 'official' results.

6) Some tipsters are cons. FootySuperTips for example... you lose, they win (see #1)

7) Some tipster review sites are actually in league with the tipsters, so you can't trust the reviews.

8) You can't just pick a random tipster out of the air (like Jon has!!!). You have to research them. Get to know them. Do they delete losing tips? Do they record profit accurately? And you have to do this over a period of months, not days.

As an example, the last 4 months I have earned +£4650 from £10-25 stakes following my tipsters, but £500 from MB. Partly to do with the death of the 888 kick offer... RIP... (The 12 months prior to that, I earned a net +£500 from £50 stakes following tipsters and £3100 from MB... the testing phase! )

Luckily for you guys... I've done most of the work for you. Its been a huge learning curve for me so I'm keen to pass on my knowledge to get more money out of the bookies into people's pockets! Its an absolute minefield, which is why it took me 12 months of intense research, spreadsheets, tracking and a lot of ups and downs to find a consistent source of income. Completely disagree that it all evens out in the end... that's true for 90% of punters because they place unresearched bets with no value.

Eg if you bet £10 on a coin toss and the odds are 2.0 then over time you'll end up at 0. But what if someone offered you odds of 4.5 on the outcome of a coin toss? If you place that bet then over time you will be up. A bit like +EV with slots. Except sports events and the actions of Man Utd players on the pitch aren't rigged by the bookie!

This is my profit graph since September 2016 -

1516985142064.png

The two big dips in March and in August are when I did what Jon has done. Start betting with someone I didn't know. I hadn't vetted according to the rules I set myself. They looked good on paper and I dived in and lost a lot of money. I've made that mistake twice and I'll never do it again.

The flat period around September is when I went on honeymoon and had a complete break from betting.

After that I started again with low stakes (£10 not £50) and my profit has sky-rocketed. I don't follow any of the tipsters I followed during September 2016 - April 2017 (which is when the profit was going up and down all the time). Any new tipster I follow with £1 stakes and check their P&L against mine before I increase stakes even to £5.

I'm hyper vigilant now with my betting bank which has reached £7000. The biggest bet I would ever place is around 1% of my entire bank. Bankroll management is SO important - too many people go in with £100 and place £10 bets. 10 losses, and you're wiped out.

The biggest lessons I have learned are discipline, followed by patience.

I've been documenting people I've been following for the past few months that are reliable, honest, consistent and can be trusted - see my twitter. I regularly make over £100 a day from my tipsters with very modest stakes. (Is that even possible with MB at the moment? It takes two seconds to place the bet, no laying off, no setting alarms to lay off the next leg of an acca to make £10...!) If you can cope with it not being GUARANTEED RISK FREE like MB and see it more as an investment.. like stocks and shares... then get in touch. :)
 

auntygeek

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auntygeek, I am interested in this.

Would I be able to get more info? Thanks
 

terryb61

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Excellent post, just out of interest who do you follow? i have used to follow a few horse racing ones. Im currently using a football acca service which I'm finding very good
 

The Reverend

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SO SO SO many things you need to consider if you are interested in making profit from a betting portfolio this way.

1) Affiliate tipsters are a well known problem - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36580678

2) Horse tipsters you need to look at making profit over the month or even quarter, let alone the day or the week. It's a very low win rate. You could go days with every bet losing.

3) People lie about results.

4) Do you have the mental fortitude to cope with losing spells? It's not a perfectly even trajectory of profit (see #2 and the graph below)

5) You need to follow someone for months to get a sense of their consistency and a real sense of the results. Horse tipsters in particular - especially pricewise - are so popular that the price sinks as soon as the tips are released. Therefore the average person following won't get anywhere near the 'official' results.

6) Some tipsters are cons. FootySuperTips for example... you lose, they win (see #1)

7) Some tipster review sites are actually in league with the tipsters, so you can't trust the reviews.

8) You can't just pick a random tipster out of the air (like Jon has!!!). You have to research them. Get to know them. Do they delete losing tips? Do they record profit accurately? And you have to do this over a period of months, not days.

As an example, the last 4 months I have earned +£4650 from £10-25 stakes following my tipsters, but £500 from MB. Partly to do with the death of the 888 kick offer... RIP... (The 12 months prior to that, I earned a net +£500 from £50 stakes following tipsters and £3100 from MB... the testing phase! )

Luckily for you guys... I've done most of the work for you. Its been a huge learning curve for me so I'm keen to pass on my knowledge to get more money out of the bookies into people's pockets! Its an absolute minefield, which is why it took me 12 months of intense research, spreadsheets, tracking and a lot of ups and downs to find a consistent source of income. Completely disagree that it all evens out in the end... that's true for 90% of punters because they place unresearched bets with no value.

Eg if you bet £10 on a coin toss and the odds are 2.0 then over time you'll end up at 0. But what if someone offered you odds of 4.5 on the outcome of a coin toss? If you place that bet then over time you will be up. A bit like +EV with slots. Except sports events and the actions of Man Utd players on the pitch aren't rigged by the bookie!

This is my profit graph since September 2016 -

View attachment 170

The two big dips in March and in August are when I did what Jon has done. Start betting with someone I didn't know. I hadn't vetted according to the rules I set myself. They looked good on paper and I dived in and lost a lot of money. I've made that mistake twice and I'll never do it again.

The flat period around September is when I went on honeymoon and had a complete break from betting.

After that I started again with low stakes (£10 not £50) and my profit has sky-rocketed. I don't follow any of the tipsters I followed during September 2016 - April 2017 (which is when the profit was going up and down all the time). Any new tipster I follow with £1 stakes and check their P&L against mine before I increase stakes even to £5.

I'm hyper vigilant now with my betting bank which has reached £7000. The biggest bet I would ever place is around 1% of my entire bank. Bankroll management is SO important - too many people go in with £100 and place £10 bets. 10 losses, and you're wiped out.

The biggest lessons I have learned are discipline, followed by patience.

I've been documenting people I've been following for the past few months that are reliable, honest, consistent and can be trusted - see my twitter. I regularly make over £100 a day from my tipsters with very modest stakes. (Is that even possible with MB at the moment? It takes two seconds to place the bet, no laying off, no setting alarms to lay off the next leg of an acca to make £10...!) If you can cope with it not being GUARANTEED RISK FREE like MB and see it more as an investment.. like stocks and shares... then get in touch. :)
Wow!

What a comeback post.

I'd really like to know more about it :) I presume its essentially trusting someone else who knows what they are doing? Is Statto a tipster? I seem to remember he has certainly had some big wins.

in unrelated news, your website (match&go) has staff? Way to go! :D
 

homie

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If they brought back that Octopus I might follow him.
 

Jon

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Well, last day of my trial and i've got 5 tips so will see how they play out
 

Hezzy

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Interesting experiment !
Past results cannot be taken as a guarantee of future performance lol
 

Jon

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Latest Update

Investment for betting £12
Day 1
15:30 Kelso - Highland Hunter - 4.33 - £6 Stake WON
16:05 Kelso - Shantaluze - 2.20 - £6 Stake WON
Profit Minus Investment £27.20

Day 2
13:35 Huntingdon - Django Django - £4 Stake - LOSS
13:45 Lingfield - Ambient - £4 Stake - WIN (£9.50)
15:15 Huntingdon - Protek Des Flos- £4 Stake - LOSS
16:00 Lingfield - Attain - £6 Stake - WIN (£18)
Profit Minus Investment - £46.70



Day 3
14:05 Doncaster - Samual Jackson - £6 Stake LOSS
14:25 Cheltenham - Bristol De Mai £4 Stake - LOSS
14:35 Lingfield - Agent Error - £4 Stake - LOSS
15:35 Cheltenham - Wholesome £4 Stake - LOSS
16:10 Cheltenham - Le Patriote - £4 Stake - LOSS
16:20 Doncaster - It's O Kay - £6 Stake LOSS

Profit Minus Investment - £18.70

So in 3 days I made £18.

Obviously, @auntygeek is right in that you need to do this long-term and weather the storms of LOSS days. Would I pay £44 a week for this service? Possibly, but I would want to be at the point of doing £10 bets every day and not £2 ones
 

The Reverend

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Latest Update

Investment for betting £12
Day 1
15:30 Kelso - Highland Hunter - 4.33 - £6 Stake WON
16:05 Kelso - Shantaluze - 2.20 - £6 Stake WON
Profit Minus Investment £27.20

Day 2
13:35 Huntingdon - Django Django - £4 Stake - LOSS
13:45 Lingfield - Ambient - £4 Stake - WIN (£9.50)
15:15 Huntingdon - Protek Des Flos- £4 Stake - LOSS
16:00 Lingfield - Attain - £6 Stake - WIN (£18)
Profit Minus Investment - £46.70



Day 3
14:05 Doncaster - Samual Jackson - £6 Stake LOSS
14:25 Cheltenham - Bristol De Mai £4 Stake - LOSS
14:35 Lingfield - Agent Error - £4 Stake - LOSS
15:35 Cheltenham - Wholesome £4 Stake - LOSS
16:10 Cheltenham - Le Patriote - £4 Stake - LOSS
16:20 Doncaster - It's O Kay - £6 Stake LOSS

Profit Minus Investment - £18.70

So in 3 days I made £18.

Obviously, @auntygeek is right in that you need to do this long-term and weather the storms of LOSS days. Would I pay £44 a week for this service? Possibly, but I would want to be at the point of doing £10 bets every day and not £2 ones
So if I understand your data correctly, you should follow your tipster for 2 days then stop for a day!

 
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Christine2

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I think some of these tipsters work for bookies, intresting experiment
 

Mark Davies

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The obvious advantage would be the tipster to give out a horse tip that has no chance of winning and the bookies receive a lot of bets on the horse based on the tip, therefore making a lot of easy money.
 

Jon

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The obvious advantage would be the tipster to give out a horse tip that has no chance of winning and the bookies receive a lot of bets on the horse based on the tip, therefore making a lot of easy money.
Do bookies not lay off all bets anyway to limit their exposure though
 

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