Anyone follow any sports tipster? (Jon's Journey to brokesville!)

Dick Barton

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Not quite in line with the thread, but rather weird anyway. One day. a while back, I was walking in a car park and on the floor was a brand new penny. I picked it up and my friend who was with me commented about it being my lucky day and that I should have a bet. At that time I did bet (in small money) using ebay and I had exactly £138 ion my account. And that day I had six bets, some losing and some winning. The last race turned into a dead heat and I had no idea what my return would be after commission and the complicated rules of dead heats. Anyway, after everything was worked out I looked at my account and I has £138 and one penny! And this little story is completely true
 
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Knopfler

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Matt on matchedbettingblog.com keeps plugging a tipster called Bet Alchemist. They have an offer that they will refund your subscription if you dont make a profit by the end of the year. Of course you have to keep the subscription for the whole year to be able to do that, so you have to be committed to it. Don't have enough confidence in it to try it myself. Will stick to my risk free MB money.

Have you seen the reviews on his site about this though - they are NOT good - quite a few people followed his recommendation with poor results
 

Mark Davies

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No idea but I bet they wouldn't lay it off if they knew the horse wasn't there to win.. but that's another can of worms.
 

Jon

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Going in on a 3 month journey with Chloes Football Focus
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/chloes-football-focus/
https://www.bettinggods.com/betting-gods-tipsters/chloes-football-focus/

Got a bankroll of £450

Will update every few weeks

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Cas

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Aislings1465

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SO SO SO many things you need to consider if you are interested in making profit from a betting portfolio this way.

1) Affiliate tipsters are a well known problem - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36580678

2) Horse tipsters you need to look at making profit over the month or even quarter, let alone the day or the week. It's a very low win rate. You could go days with every bet losing.

3) People lie about results.

4) Do you have the mental fortitude to cope with losing spells? It's not a perfectly even trajectory of profit (see #2 and the graph below)

5) You need to follow someone for months to get a sense of their consistency and a real sense of the results. Horse tipsters in particular - especially pricewise - are so popular that the price sinks as soon as the tips are released. Therefore the average person following won't get anywhere near the 'official' results.

6) Some tipsters are cons. FootySuperTips for example... you lose, they win (see #1)

7) Some tipster review sites are actually in league with the tipsters, so you can't trust the reviews.

8) You can't just pick a random tipster out of the air (like Jon has!!!). You have to research them. Get to know them. Do they delete losing tips? Do they record profit accurately? And you have to do this over a period of months, not days.

As an example, the last 4 months I have earned +£4650 from £10-25 stakes following my tipsters, but £500 from MB. Partly to do with the death of the 888 kick offer... RIP... (The 12 months prior to that, I earned a net +£500 from £50 stakes following tipsters and £3100 from MB... the testing phase! )

Luckily for you guys... I've done most of the work for you. Its been a huge learning curve for me so I'm keen to pass on my knowledge to get more money out of the bookies into people's pockets! Its an absolute minefield, which is why it took me 12 months of intense research, spreadsheets, tracking and a lot of ups and downs to find a consistent source of income. Completely disagree that it all evens out in the end... that's true for 90% of punters because they place unresearched bets with no value.

Eg if you bet £10 on a coin toss and the odds are 2.0 then over time you'll end up at 0. But what if someone offered you odds of 4.5 on the outcome of a coin toss? If you place that bet then over time you will be up. A bit like +EV with slots. Except sports events and the actions of Man Utd players on the pitch aren't rigged by the bookie!

This is my profit graph since September 2016 -

View attachment 170

The two big dips in March and in August are when I did what Jon has done. Start betting with someone I didn't know. I hadn't vetted according to the rules I set myself. They looked good on paper and I dived in and lost a lot of money. I've made that mistake twice and I'll never do it again.

The flat period around September is when I went on honeymoon and had a complete break from betting.

After that I started again with low stakes (£10 not £50) and my profit has sky-rocketed. I don't follow any of the tipsters I followed during September 2016 - April 2017 (which is when the profit was going up and down all the time). Any new tipster I follow with £1 stakes and check their P&L against mine before I increase stakes even to £5.

I'm hyper vigilant now with my betting bank which has reached £7000. The biggest bet I would ever place is around 1% of my entire bank. Bankroll management is SO important - too many people go in with £100 and place £10 bets. 10 losses, and you're wiped out.

The biggest lessons I have learned are discipline, followed by patience.

I've been documenting people I've been following for the past few months that are reliable, honest, consistent and can be trusted - see my twitter. I regularly make over £100 a day from my tipsters with very modest stakes. (Is that even possible with MB at the moment? It takes two seconds to place the bet, no laying off, no setting alarms to lay off the next leg of an acca to make £10...!) If you can cope with it not being GUARANTEED RISK FREE like MB and see it more as an investment.. like stocks and shares... then get in touch. :)

Interested in learning more about your methods
 

The Reverend

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Going in on a 3 month journey with Chloes Football Focus
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/chloes-football-focus/
https://www.bettinggods.com/betting-gods-tipsters/chloes-football-focus/

Got a bankroll of £450

Will update every few weeks

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Good luck and God’s speed.

I do think that being a ‘Tipster’ is more about hoping your averages are ‘ok’. I plan to read up on them but I don’t think it is for me. I remember a post on ‘another’ site where there was a MB diary and someone worked out if they’d have just bet on the favourite of every free bet they placed, and didn’t lay, they’d have made a ‘similar’ profit over the year.

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Jon

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Good luck and God’s speed.

I do think that being a ‘Tipster’ is more about hoping your averages are ‘ok’. I plan to read up on them but I don’t think it is for me. I remember a post on ‘another’ site where there was a MB diary and someone worked out if they’d have just bet on the favourite of every free bet they placed, and didn’t lay, they’d have made a ‘similar’ profit over the year.

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Tipsters make money by getting people to sign up to them.

it's obviously in their interest to get good results so that more people sign up and and use their affiliate links lol

Results are literally everything in the tipster game!
 

homie

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Football is the trickiest of all the tricky things to predict. I mean who would have predicted the Chelsea / Bournemouth result in the midweek games.

Good luck with this.
 

Jon

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homie

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A lot of the bets seem to be around over / under on goals and second chance

You can see the results here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1INa0Q-Fme-Qh39OdBcIZUdKFN-waMrfBXP2OqMY0TtI/edit?usp=sharing

Wow, wasn't expecting to see so many oddball teams, Seattle Sounders, Sweden U21s, Godoy Cruz...... Make sure you only use bookies you don't care about because if you are already flagged up as having a matched betting profile suddenly placing these bets might see you firmly on the bus to gubbsiville.

Results of you tipster seem quite good and importantly there are no long losing streaks to wipe your bank out. Keep us updated.

Interestingly I have been experimenting with trading the under overs market on betfair, laying the >3.5 goals or >4.5 market at start of play on matches I've selected using some stats sites and gradually trading out over the first 15 mins. Been stung a couple of times where 2 goals have gone in in quick succession but generally am up on most games. (only doing small bets though so minimal profit until I have the confidence to go bigger)
 

Jon

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Wow, wasn't expecting to see so many oddball teams, Seattle Sounders, Sweden U21s, Godoy Cruz...... Make sure you only use bookies you don't care about because if you are already flagged up as having a matched betting profile suddenly placing these bets might see you firmly on the bus to gubbsiville.

Results of you tipster seem quite good and importantly there are no long losing streaks to wipe your bank out. Keep us updated.

Interestingly I have been experimenting with trading the under overs market on betfair, laying the >3.5 goals or >4.5 market at start of play on matches I've selected using some stats sites and gradually trading out over the first 15 mins. Been stung a couple of times where 2 goals have gone in in quick succession but generally am up on most games. (only doing small bets though so minimal profit until I have the confidence to go bigger)

yeah don't worry I'm not using any of my major bookies for this so no bus to gubsville for me
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Keep up your over/under system.

Get 4 months results and then you too can be a tipster! https://www.bettinggods.com/tipster-apply/
 

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