Question / Discussion Betting Systems

Stevie D

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Below is from Betfair Exchange website. Is dutching, lay betting, etc really a viable way to earn money. So much horse racing takes place in America every day. Could above be applied to US racing. Any thoughts??

Horse Racing Betting Systems

Horse racing offers one of the biggest sports betting markets in the world and that means punters of all persuasions can ante-up and test their mettle in a variety of ways.
Regardless of whether you're a high roller looking to stake thousands on a race or a casual punter simply speculating on a major race such as the Grand National, the online arena certainly has something for everyone. However, if you don't know how you're going to ante-up, then your chances of success are slim.
But surely it's just a case of finding a horse and betting some money? Technically, the answer is yes. However, if you want to give yourself the best shot at making money in the horse racing market, then a solid betting system is needed. Although some will suggest that horse racing betting systems are simply a myth, this isn't true.
The problem betting systems often have is that people wrongly assume that they are a magical sure-fire way to make money. The reality, however, is that these "systems" are nothing more than techniques for picking out value in the market. If you peel back the layers and blow through the bluster, any horse racing system is a great way to guide your selections when you want to ante-up.
With this in mind, we've broken down some of the more effective horse racing betting systems you can use to increase your EV. However, before we get into the ways in which you can pick a winner, it's important to outline the two main methods of expressing odds in the betting world.
Know Your Odds
Depending on where you are in the world and the race that's taking place, the expression of odds will come in one of two forms:
Fixed Odds Betting: In the virtual world, the majority of horse racing betting sites use the fixed odds system. With a fixed odds bet, the payout for a winning wager is agreed at the time a bet is placed and will not change.
Parimutuel Betting: In contrast to the fixed odds system, some sites will also offer the Parimutuel odds method. Although less common in Europe than it is in other parts of the world, this style of horse racing betting is controlled by a 'tote' system which takes into account all money in the betting pool and determines the payout odds of winning bets once the house's cut is removed. Essentially, Parimutuel betting differs from fixed odds betting in that the final payout is not set until the betting pool is closed.
Now we've cleared that up, the next thing to do is outline some simple horse racing betting systems that you can use to enhance your chances of success in the iGaming arena.
The Statistical Lay
To lay a horse in the sports betting arena means you are essentially betting against a runner. To use this system, you first need to find a race that has ten or more runners. Once you've found a suitable race, the key to this system is identifying the three favourites and checking out their odds.
Once you've found the top three prospects in the race, you then need to pick out the runners that have odds of between 3.0 (2/1) and 5.8 (4.8/1) and lay against the one with the lowest odds. Doing this, according to the stats, you should realise a winner around 80% of the time.
The reason this is true is because statistical analysis shows that horses with odds within these ranges (when in the top three picks of a race) only win around 17% of the time. This means a lay bet (i.e. a bet that the horse won't win) on these prospects should realise you a profit 83% of the time. Simple.
Back the Beaten Favourite System
Another horse racing betting system that has a good chance of success is the beaten favourite method. When a horse is highly touted but beaten in a race, the weight of public opinion often flows against them in the next race. As the wave of betting flows against the beaten favourite, the bookmakers are naturally forced to increase their odds on that runner.
Anyone that's experienced in the horse racing world will know that even the best horses can lose; regardless of how skilled they are. Because of this, it's easy to look past a single, unexpected, loss and ante-up on a beaten favourite. Indeed, because the horse will have better odds than it normally would, it then makes this strategy a viable long term proposition because whenever a horse is underpriced (i.e. the odds are longer than they should be), it will almost always realise a profit over time.
The Dutching System
For the mathematically inclined, one of the best horse racing betting system is the Dutching method. In a nutshell, this strategy basically ensures that when you bet on a selection of horses, you will make the same amount of money in each instance, regardless of the overall winner. Although the route to this goal involves some calculations, the overall premise is relatively simple. In fact, if you look online you'll find a myriad of calculators that will do a lot of the hard work for you.
To give you an insight into the process in action, you first need to find a race with a decent amount of runners (usually 10+). At this point you need to pick out two of the top three ranked horses with fairly generous odds. Once you've done this you need to work out the implied probabilities from the odds offered. After that you work out the stake necessary for each bet to guarantee yourself a set profit regardless of the outcome.
Here is the above process in action:
Implied probabilities according to the odds:
Implied Probability of an 11/1 runner = (1 / (11/1 + 1)) * 100 = 8.33%
Implied Probability of an 3/1 runner = (1 / (3/1 + 1)) * 100 = 25%
The Stakes Required:
Amount to stake on the 11/1 runner = (8.33 / (25 + 8.33)) * £10 = £2.50
Amount to stake on the 3/1 runner = (25 / (25 + 8.33)) * £10 = £7.50
Using this formula you should see that regardless of which selection wins, you will receive a £30 return on your investment.
As you can see, horse racing betting systems aren't a magical way to defy the odds and beat the bookies. Instead, these systems are designed to numbers and data to disseminate the betting market in a logical way. The end result, as you can see, is a solid way to refine your selections and improve your chances of making money in the horse racing arena.
 

Wibble

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Hope, dreams and madness lie within ... enjoy :)
 
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rninja

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With any dutching. lay betting or any other betting 'system' you'll need to find an edge to make a profit.

Dutching is typically used to cover all outcomes in an event. You might dutch all horses in an extra place race - such as the 2019 and 2020 Supreme Novices Hurdle race at the Cheltenham festival. A certain high-profile bookmaker was offering 7 places each-way, so backing and laying all horses each-way was profitable.

If you're lay betting on horses - ask yourself: "What's my edge against the market?". You'll only make long-term profit laying at better odds than the market consensus. Good luck with that, as the exchange prices are shaped by lots of users ('wisdom of the crowds').

I'd suggest that dutching and laying are very difficult on US racing. The lack of market liquidity at the exchange is a barrier.
 

Stevie D

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Was considering dutching for use every day, not just big events. But I see that is probably not a runner. Lay betting is more appealing as it's picking a loser. I see some tipsters offering this...
 

rninja

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Dutching can be useful for everyday events. Which markets were you considering?

I'm always wary of tipsters unless they can provide an independently verified profit/loss record. Also, with lay betting you need a mathematical edge or you're just unlikely to profit long term.
 

Wibble

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hardest thing with trading is the swings.
you either have lots of small wins and a few big losses or lots of small losses and a few big wins.
and hopefully fingers crossed a margin of profit.
and then you have to believe and stick to it and not chase loses. that is tuff!
takes a while to get your head around that.
Im still trying :)

dutching is just a posh way of taking arbs - gnoming aside how do you do that long term?
 

rninja

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You could dutch a 2up match across home win/draw/away win at bet365/betting exchange/paddy Power.

Or, say a snooker or darts refund offer, you'd do a 2-way dutch between two different bookies to qualify at both.

Another advanced form of dutching is trying to hit a "middle". For example, back a proposition bet at two different bookies while trying to hit the middle outcome.
 

homie

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Proform is good for horse race statistics if you are a serious gambler, but very expensive.
 

Stevie D

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Dutching can be useful for everyday events. Which markets were you considering?

I'm always wary of tipsters unless they can provide an independently verified profit/loss record. Also, with lay betting you need a mathematical edge or you're just unlikely to profit long term.

All the US racing at the moment. Was considering dutching the top 3 or 4 horses in races. But hard to get previous stats on US racing for the main tracks to bet on at the moment
 

rninja

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All the US racing at the moment. Was considering dutching the top 3 or 4 horses in races. But hard to get previous stats on US racing for the main tracks to bet on at the moment
Why would you be dutching the top 3 or 4 horses in a race? Dutching is covering every horse in a race.
 

The Reverend

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Betting 'systems' don't work.

Gambling will result in an over-all loss UNLESS you have insider knowledge, but then its not Gambling.

Its always worrying when people talk about systems as its like they want approval to gamble and are just hoping to improve their odds. At best, that is what you are doing.

Like betting 'red/black' and doubling your bet if you lose...how many times will the same colour come up? How much money do you have just to break even. What happens when it lands on green?

Avoid systems. Thats my advice.

Bah Humbug!

The Reverend
 

Rs20033

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I agree with @The Reverend . I’ve been matched betting for a while. I’ve seen at least 15 reds in a row on roulette. I’ve even seen the same number come out 3 times in a row more than once. The amount of times that the top 3 or 4 horses haven’t won? Take a look at previous race results. I’m sure it’s fairly common.

Matched betting is the only way to make a guaranteed profit from betting. Systems may seem like they work at first but I would advise to do a lot of paper trading before you risk real money, and set a loss limit and stick to it.
 

Stevie D

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Would be dutching the top 3 or 4 horses for a better return. Say 1/2 to 1/4. And hope the wins outweigh the losses. Following the US racing results since the UK and Irish racing stopped and the top 3-4 horses wins quite frequently. Yesterday from 19 races only 4 winners were not from those horses. In football dutching 1-1/+2.5 is worth doing especially at half time for a good return. Looking for something similar for US racing. But think I'm trying to put a square peg into a round hole. Thanks for all the advice
 

Wibble

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Betting systems can work.
Sports trading can work.
Staking systems can work.

However I don't think that most people can be successful in any of these.

Discipline is the key.

And discipline is very very very *very* have I said very enough ............................................................. very very very hard.

Insider knowledge would of course help but if the system is right (or wrong) enough it is ultimately irrelevant.
 
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Wibble

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Just to be clear I would quite happily bet on which rain drop reached the bottom of a window pane first but only if ...

,,,,, I thought I had an advantage

EV and all that.

Where is the EV in betting on the top 3 / or the top 4 horsies?

You said "hope the wins outweigh the losses"

Hope is a dangerous thing.
Hope is not a Plan A.
 
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