Casino deals

[Jon]

Actually I guess you are saying that if you toss a coin it is 50:50 to get heads. If I toss it again, the odds are still the same. But my brain still says that If I get heads 5 times in 5 tosses, then I should start getting some tails to get to 50:50 over time right?

If you do the lottery and choose 1 2 3 4 5 6 as your numbers is has the exact same chance as any other variation of numbers

 

[Queen Jess]

If you do the lottery and choose 1 2 3 4 5 6 as your numbers is has the exact same chance as any other variation of numbers

Blimey... anyone would think I didn't have a maths A-level or even some degree level maths.. LOL! I blame the baby.... 3 hours sleep a night is not enough!

 

[Queen Jess]

Blimey... anyone would think I didn't have a maths A-level or even some degree level maths.. LOL! I blame the baby.... 3 hours sleep a night is not enough!

Right... so should I think of it like this instead... every time you have a 50:50 chance of getting heads or tails. If I were to do this infinitely I would get a 50:50 split. However, I am actually doing lots of different offers with different slots etc which all have positive EV for infinite spins. As I am not going to do the same slot and deal for the rest of time, I have the same chance each day.

Does that work? My brain hurts...

 

[Pbrail]

Actually I guess you are saying that if you toss a coin it is 50:50 to get heads. If I toss it again, the odds are still the same. But my brain still says that If I get heads 5 times in 5 tosses, then I should start getting some tails to get to 50:50 over time right?

Every time you toss a coin you have a 50:50 chance. But it's not just every time *you* personally toss a coin, it's every time every coin is tossed by every person.

So if 2 people stand side by side both tossing coins and they do that tens of 1000's of times then it may at some point get close to 50:50 heads or tails in total of every coin flip. But, it's quite possible that individually the 2 people will experience different ratios ie. 1 person could toss heads 70:30, and the other 30:70.

If you look at doing an offer as the only person doing it in isolation, then yes, eventually if you flip the coin enough times you should eventually start to reach that 50:50 point. But you're not the only person doing it, there are tons and tons of other people doing it. You could flip a coin and always always get heads and someone else does the same and always always gets tails.

That's obviously an extreme scenario but it's theoretically possible - the 50:50 would be maintained as a whole, but 2 individual people can have very different results. Which is the variance.

That's how I understand it anyhow - admittedly I'm not the most math-tastic person out there though so maybe someone can explain it better (or correct me if I'm repeating something parrot fashion that's wrong!)

 

[Jon]

 

[Cas]

As an experiment why don't you the same slot tonight and see what happens.

 

[Pbrail]

Well as mentioned previously I did the WH offer of spin and get £5 bonus x20 and capped the £100 bonus 3 times during the offer and £70 odd one day during qualifying wagering and I think that offer ran for a week (I can go back and check my spreadsheet if anyone is really interested LOL).

Just imagine if I'd stopped the first day I came out ahead....

 

[Hezzy]

Yeh, I too did A level maths with stats, but it was a long time ago lol!
I *know* that 1,2,3,4,5,6 is no more likely than any other 6 numbers, but still its hard to believe.
I *know* that every spin is unique and equally probable than the next, but sometimes when you're on a roll of dead spins it's hard to believe lol.
I just did the Betfair arcade 20 for a 5 sports bet, and basically I need the 5 free bet to make back my losses lol.

 

[homie]

I worked with a teacher once who was in a lottery syndicate that used to pick the numbers that hadn't come up for a long time because they were "due" to come up. And she was a maths teacher.

Its called gamblers fallacy and is the reason so many people lose money using the martingale system on red and black on roulette.

 

[Jon]

I worked with a teacher once who was in a lottery syndicate that used to pick the numbers that hadn't come up for a long time because they were "due" to come up. And she was a maths teacher.

Its called gamblers fallacy and is the reason so many people lose money using the martingale system on red and black on roulette.

I miss the days of every few months someone joining up to TMS and posting about that system lol

 

[The Reverend]

I worked with a teacher once who was in a lottery syndicate that used to pick the numbers that hadn't come up for a long time because they were "due" to come up. And she was a maths teacher.

Its called gamblers fallacy and is the reason so many people lose money using the martingale system on red and black on roulette.

Back when I was a little distracted at work, I downloaded the previous lotto result (before they changed the numbers) and analysed them as best as I could.

I did lines with all the most winning numbers / least picked numbers / most regular coming out in a group or 3 or 4 / and a few others.

NONE of them won anything for the next draw. I could have continued to chase my losses but as I’d spent £40-60 on tickets, I felt it wasn’t the best use of my cash chasing that loss.

Now the numbers have changed its harder to analyse. BUT....if the same person pressed the button at the same time on the same machine (like a roulette croupier) then it would be possible to guess with a greater accuracy what the numbers would be.

 

[The Reverend]

I miss the days of every few months someone joining up to TMS and posting about that system lol

But its easy! When you lose you just double your bet and you are even! Easy Money!

 

[homie]

Back when I was a little distracted at work, I downloaded the previous lotto result (before they changed the numbers) and analysed them as best as I could.

I did lines with all the most winning numbers / least picked numbers / most regular coming out in a group or 3 or 4 / and a few others.

NONE of them won anything for the next draw. I could have continued to chase my losses but as I’d spent £40-60 on tickets, I felt it wasn’t the best use of my cash chasing that loss.

Now the numbers have changed its harder to analyse. BUT....if the same person pressed the button at the same time on the same machine (like a roulette croupier) then it would be possible to guess with a greater accuracy what the numbers would be.

There is very expensive and illegal equipment that you can buy that supposedly analyses the physics of the ball bouncing around on the roulette wheel when at a real casino and predicts which group of numbers it will land on. How it works, or if it works at all, I don't know.

 

[Cas]

after reading this thread i got excited and thought let me try that sky bet deal wager £20 for 5 free bet .

Basically all of the boosts i done yesterday on football were for nothing.

£15 pounds dowwnnnnn.



actually feel sorry for people addicted to gambling , it plays with your emotions .

 

[The Reverend]

after reading this thread i got excited and thought let me try that sky bet deal wager £20 for 5 free bet .

Basically all of the boosts i done yesterday on football were for nothing.

£15 pounds dowwnnnnn.



actually feel sorry for people addicted to gambling , it plays with your emotions .

It’s one of the reasons I try to steer people towards no-risk Match Betting rather than some of the other ‘offers’ that people promote. Some people think that £20 for a £5 free bet means they should £4 profit from the deal. The reality is that £20 on a slot machine may, if you are lucky, leave you £15 back. Not many people win their £20 back so essentially, the £5 free bet has actually cost you £5.

I think it ‘works’ for people who make £500+ through match betting because they are happy to lose £5 to get a £5 free bet. It’s a cheeky bit of mug-betting that improves their account with the bookies. The bookies like to see a loss and the Match Bet-er might make a profit from the £20 spins and when they win, they will tell you about it!

There is a huge difference between No Risk and ‘Low risk’ (whatever ‘Low Risk’ is). Very experienced MB may choose to do Low Risk but they generally have an understanding that over the month they will get this back. Inexperienced MBers and gambling addicts will see the loss and either give up OR chase it with “Its had £20, it’s got to be paying out soon” but they forget its not one machine and them, its hundreds of machines and hundreds of people.

 

[Cas]

I am going to take it as a learning curve . so depending on how much i make a day will dictate which offers i do with casino.

Its true that the majority of people only post when they have won.

 

[homie]

@Cas keep a look out for sky casino's £10 risk free offer. They come up every so often and you get to try casino risk free. If you win a profit you are happy with then stop and all is good. If you lose they will refund up to £10 of your losses, so as long as you stop if you hit a £10 loss it is totally risk free.

 

[Cas]

@Cas keep a look out for sky casino's £10 risk free offer. They come up every so often and you get to try casino risk free. If you win a profit you are happy with then stop and all is good. If you lose they will refund up to £10 of your losses, so as long as you stop if you hit a £10 loss it is totally risk free.

Thanks will give it a go , when it comes up .

 

[Pbrail]

Anything that's not risk free that's worth doing is down to +EV (Expected Value), which is when an offer (like the wager £20 get £5 FB) gives you the statistical advantage rather than the House (bookie) having the advantage.

However, like we were talking about with the RTP earlier, EV happens over lots of offers, not just a single one in isolation. Basically, you either commit to doing Low Risk offers all the time, or you avoid them completely - worse thing you can do though is do one at random and then stop. Do another 2 months later. Stop again.

The value is in the long term - hence me always calling those offers the roller coaster rides - it's a real pita if you hit a string of losses on the bounce, but you have to keep the faith and stick with the long term view. Because sooner or later it'll swing back in your favour.

Yes, you might be £15 down this week with a £5 Free Bet. But next week you might be £10 up and have another Free Bet to boot too. And then the 3rd week you might be £1 down with a Free Bet...and the 4th £2 up with the Free Bet.

Do any offer enough times and in the long run you'll be up because you have +EV on your side. It's hard not to look at it and be pissed off when you've wiped out a day's profit - I still do it even now and fume a little at it. However, that's also when I force myself to look at my previous month's figures to remind myself what it's all about. I think I've only ever once had a month in the red from my casino offers, the rest have always been very profitable.

 

[Pbrail]

BUT - just to add. Casino offers aren't for everyone, so you just gotta do what feels 'right' for you.

I'd also say that even if you are ok with doing those sorts of offers, if money is really tight you should avoid them too as you need the bank roll to be able to weather any storms until you get back on the upswing.