Matched Betting Discussion [OT] Discussion about Matched Betting II {Beginners Guide in 1st Post}

Petlamb

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I planned to do my first couple of MBs today to learn the art, but then had a stotting headache I couldn't think through, which seemed like a recipe for disaster - so will be doing them tomorrow I hope!
 

Knopfler

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Yippee, just got a Betfair Arcade free bet of £5 from their Free Bet Mondays promotion. I need to wager it through once, so I assume this means I just need to play £5 worth of spins, then anything I may win after that are winnings to my normal balance

Hi, [member=1]Jon[/member] :) as you are the slots king on here :p can you tell me which of these games are the best to play, in your humble opinion, thanks:

Twin Spin
Tornado Farm Escape
Steamtower,
Flowers,
Gonzo's Quest,
Jackhammer,
Lights,
South Park,
Starburst,
Miss White,
Ali Baba,
Cleopatra,
Prowling Panther,
Da Vinci Diamonds,
Triple Diamond,
Bubble Craze
 

Stims

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jkg-jkg said:
With a 90% RTP slot I find the variance can be a lot more than a 95% slot and as you are only wagering £30 I think my Ladbrokes comment is fair enough.
SportingBet - I didn't read it right so reading it again you are right, but I hate any offer where you get a % of losses back (because you have to lose first, and I assume you then have wagering on the money they give you back)
SuperLenny Case 1 - £40 x20 = £800 - RTP of 95% = £760 = 0 EV and therefore marginal. Case 2 (more likely as this is the usual SuperLenny T&Cs) - £20 + £40 = £60 x20 = £1200 - RTP of 95% = £1140 so EV = -£20. Feel free to 'teach' me if my maths is wrong
Betfair £5 live casino match - it was x5 wagering if I remember rightly, but with such small amounts even the variance on BJ and Roulette can kill you (it is worth a go, but not in the category of 'low' risk) - doing the 188Bet roulette for free spins offer I saw 3 red out of 25 the other day (luckily I was on black)

You invested £30 + £10 + £20 + £5 = £65 and lost £53, maybe that seems low risk to you, but doesn't to me.

RE. The Super Lenny offer which was x20 on bonus only (sent via post for some reason).. you've assumed 2 things:
1. that i would go ahead and use a slot with 5% house edge (strange considering there are much better available on that site, and not off limits).
2. that everyone doing the offer would complete all wagering (they wouldn't)

Even assuming everyone would do all 800 worth of wagering, and a 4% house edge (again, better are available) you have an EV of around £8. The actual EV was higher and would be higher still if i increased my conservative bust rate (doing so would make the x20 deposit and bonus EV also).

Again, i am unsure if this kind of stuff is explained on PA.

You can't focus on individual events and experiences. Just because you saw 3 red in 25 spins, doesn't make roulette a high risk, high variance game. If i had won £500 on these offers rather than losing £53, would you now say they are low risk?

If you consider wagering £25 on roulette high risk then that's fair enough, obviously people's perceptions of risk will differ based on circumstance. Either way, i agree that i have been taking on too much risk personally, given that I've let losses get to me that is clear. Despite having the bank to handle it, emotionally, i'm way off.

Made some changes now and i'm confident April will see me back to profitable ways and positivism throughout.
 

MuckleMaker

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Stims said:
Made some changes now and i'm confident April will see me back to profitable ways and positivism throughout.

I've had a break (apart from the odd dabble) and now getting back into Bookie-Bashing, starting with clearing a few outstanding sign-ups.

Let's hope April is positive for us all.
 

Stims

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Actually found a few relatively new bookies i can sign up to myself.
 

sillymoo

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I've just signed up to a new bookie that uses Dafabet and it looks like I may not be able to do the offer. The odds are just dreadful and as they stand now my qualifying losses would be higher than the free bet profit. Is Dafabet always that bad and is there any chance the odds will get better closer to the weekend?
 

jkg-jkg

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They will get better at the weekend. Especially this weekend as the Grand National should have a lot of high priced close matches.
 

lsully

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Hello,

I am lurking around whilst trying to do the first few free sign ups via Profit Accumulator.

I see the Grand National is this weekend and just wondering if that is a good time to be placing any bets? Any advice welcome as I am a complete newbie but wouldn't want to miss anything whilst still trawling through PA and waiting for winnings to come in. Can potentially add an extra bit of my own cash as liability (have already started with just under £100) as long as it is a guaranteed return.

Thanks so much in advance.
 

Jon

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From memory last year the grand national was a bit of a damp squid after Cheltenham so I guess we will have to wait to see what reload offers go up on Saturday :)
 

Jon

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PaddyPower just emailed me and are offering a £20 refund if you horse comes 2nd in a bunch of races today at Aintree ;)

Load up that Match Catcher [member=4595]Leece[/member]
 

Jon

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Infact it seems a LOT of bookies are doing this sort of offer today ;)
 

Leeceford

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Jon said:
PaddyPower just emailed me and are offering a £20 refund if you horse comes 2nd in a bunch of races today at Aintree ;)

Load up that Match Catcher [member=4595]Leece[/member]

Already on it [member=1]Jon[/member] Only got half an hour before I have to go on daughter duty to take dad to the opticians but hopefully get a bit done first
 

Leeceford

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Jon said:
From memory last year the grand national was a bit of a damp squid after Cheltenham so I guess we will have to wait to see what reload offers go up on Saturday :)

I'm taking my son to London to some Match Attax thing at Chelsea FC so will be out ALL DAY.
I hope I dont miss anything good :-[
 

lsully

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Jon said:
From memory last year the grand national was a bit of a damp squid after Cheltenham so I guess we will have to wait to see what reload offers go up on Saturday :)

Ah thanks [member=1]Jon[/member] never mind, I am not sure I will have my cash back in my account in time from my bookie wins by the weekend. I don't think I can take advantage of reloads yet as still working through my new offers on PA.

What are people's thoughts about taking money from my savings to boost my matched betting progress for the time being? Had originally staked £100 and still new and nervous but we really need some extra cash to start coming in asap.

Really appreciate anyone's reply thank you.
 

Jon

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lsully said:
Jon said:
From memory last year the grand national was a bit of a damp squid after Cheltenham so I guess we will have to wait to see what reload offers go up on Saturday :)

Ah thanks [member=1]Jon[/member] never mind, I am not sure I will have my cash back in my account in time from my bookie wins by the weekend. I don't think I can take advantage of reloads yet as still working through my new offers on PA.

What are people's thoughts about taking money from my savings to boost my matched betting progress for the time being? Had originally staked £100 and still new and nervous but we really need some extra cash to start coming in asap.

Really appreciate anyone's reply thank you.

Well you can always withdraw the money back I guess so obviously if you have a bigger kitty then you can plough through more offers much quicker while you are getting started
 

stonecrows

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lsully said:
Jon said:
From memory last year the grand national was a bit of a damp squid after Cheltenham so I guess we will have to wait to see what reload offers go up on Saturday :)

Ah thanks [member=1]Jon[/member] never mind, I am not sure I will have my cash back in my account in time from my bookie wins by the weekend. I don't think I can take advantage of reloads yet as still working through my new offers on PA.

What are people's thoughts about taking money from my savings to boost my matched betting progress for the time being? Had originally staked £100 and still new and nervous but we really need some extra cash to start coming in asap.

Really appreciate anyone's reply thank you.

I did this initially so I could move things along faster. The only thing I would say is, make sure you don't take out more than you could afford to lose if you made a mistake laying something. MBing isn't risky but human error is!
 

lsully

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stonecrows said:
lsully said:
Jon said:
From memory last year the grand national was a bit of a damp squid after Cheltenham so I guess we will have to wait to see what reload offers go up on Saturday :)

Ah thanks [member=1]Jon[/member] never mind, I am not sure I will have my cash back in my account in time from my bookie wins by the weekend. I don't think I can take advantage of reloads yet as still working through my new offers on PA.

What are people's thoughts about taking money from my savings to boost my matched betting progress for the time being? Had originally staked £100 and still new and nervous but we really need some extra cash to start coming in asap.

Really appreciate anyone's reply thank you.

I did this initially so I could move things along faster. The only thing I would say is, make sure you don't take out more than you could afford to lose if you made a mistake laying something. MBing isn't risky but human error is!

Thanks for you replies and yes I agree. I made a mistake yesterday and Betfred only agreed to rectify it as I was a new customer (bookies do have hearts!) I might give myself another week or so practice before committing extra. Have now opened a new bank account so it should be a bit less messy and more organised.
 

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