Matched Betting Discussion [OT] Discussion about Matched Betting II {Beginners Guide in 1st Post}

jkg-jkg

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I have to admit I don't understand this. Surely if I had backed them originally I would have got the odds I backed them at. How would I have got £65 cashout by backing for £260.
The key thing here is you are MBing. You have backed AND laid and are making a small (or zero) loss. IF you were a normal punter you would be winning the bet no matter what happens, but you wouldn't have laid and this is where we live.

So a quick example:

You back a team £50 @ 5.0 (potential winnings £200) and let us say you get lucky and lay the same £50 @ 5.0 (liability £200) with 0% commision so 0 QL. The team goes 2UP and you get paid out by B365. At this point you have won nothing, because the lay bet is still in place and you will still lose that if the team goes on to win. So then two things can happen 1) the team goes on to win, 2) the team doesn't win - a loss or draw is the same here.

If you do nothing and the team doesn't win you get paid out @ B365 AND you win the lay bet £200 + £50 = £250 - This is the classic 2UP scenario (but doesn't happen often).

You can however cash out (either fully or partially). Now remember you have a £250 budget to play with (the £200 + £50).

Say the odds on the team are currently 1.6667 (I do this to make the calcs easier).

Cash Out Fully Scenario - You place a £150 BACK bet on the team and this is a potential profit of £100.
Then if they still win you get £200 from B365, £100 from your back bet, and lose £200 from the lay = £100 profit.
If they don't win you still get £200 from B365, you lose £150 from the back bet, but you get the £50 lay back = £100 profit

Cash Out Partially Scenario - You place a £100 BACK bet on the team and this is a potential profit of £66.67.
Then if they still win you get £200 from B365, £66.67 from your back bet, and lose £200 from the lay = £66.67 profit.
If they don't win you still get £200 from B365, you lose £100 from the back bet, but you get the £50 lay back = £150 profit

On OM there are calculators, and downloadable spreadsheets that make these calcs a bit easier (probably on PA too)

I personally place an immediate back bet equal to my original stake, and then decide over the next few mins what to do about the rest
 
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rninja

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This highlights the importance of people understanding the underlying calculations when matched betting. Sure, you can outsource the offer calendars and odds matching to a subscription firm, but what happens when a bet goes unmatched or such like?
 

Jon

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I really do love the William Hill £50 football refund offer you know ;)
 

Stims

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I've not been on the forum for a while but here's a little update:

2018 i cleared over 6k profit for the year. Was very happy with this considering i only operate my own account, took more than a month off with holidays and still live a pretty good social life at weekends.

2019 started bad with January and February both losing me money. Then in march i had my best ever month, and April to date isn't looking too bad. I don't touch casinos still but i am now involved with some pretty intelligent groups focusing on gaining an advantage in sports betting - I won't go into that too much on here as it's not the object of the site, but the highlight of the year was collectively taking over 25k from William Hill shops on one bet. Hopefully over the year i can achieve a similar result to 2018.

I keep thinking i'll have to give this up soon as it becomes harder and harder to maintain a long term income. Then 4 years later i'm still here.
 

Karonher

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The key thing here is you are MBing. You have backed AND laid and are making a small (or zero) loss. IF you were a normal punter you would be winning the bet no matter what happens, but you wouldn't have laid and this is where we live.

So a quick example:

You back a team £50 @ 5.0 (potential winnings £200) and let us say you get lucky and lay the same £50 @ 5.0 (liability £200) with 0% commision so 0 QL. The team goes 2UP and you get paid out by B365. At this point you have won nothing, because the lay bet is still in place and you will still lose that if the team goes on to win. So then two things can happen 1) the team goes on to win, 2) the team doesn't win - a loss or draw is the same here.

If you do nothing and the team doesn't win you get paid out @ B365 AND you win the lay bet £200 + £50 = £250 - This is the classic 2UP scenario (but doesn't happen often).

You can however cash out (either fully or partially). Now remember you have a £250 budget to play with (the £200 + £50).

Say the odds on the team are currently 1.6667 (I do this to make the calcs easier).

Cash Out Fully Scenario - You place a £150 BACK bet on the team and this is a potential profit of £100.
Then if they still win you get £200 from B365, £100 from your back bet, and lose £200 from the lay = £100 profit.
If they don't win you still get £200 from B365, you lose £150 from the back bet, but you get the £50 lay back = £100 profit

Cash Out Partially Scenario - You place a £100 BACK bet on the team and this is a potential profit of £66.67.
Then if they still win you get £200 from B365, £66.67 from your back bet, and lose £200 from the lay = £66.67 profit.
If they don't win you still get £200 from B365, you lose £100 from the back bet, but you get the £50 lay back = £150 profit

On OM there are calculators, and downloadable spreadsheets that make these calcs a bit easier (probably on PA too)

I personally place an immediate back bet equal to my original stake, and then decide over the next few mins what to do about the rest

Thanks - I always lay the bet but have never tried to cash out or lay other bets during the game. I'll look for the calculator in PA.
 

Jon

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nice easy £5 for £10 betway offer tonight on top of the william hill £50 thang!
 

MAX POWER

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Hi @Jon and thanks for the reply...Just been looking at the video on the lock ion method etc, can I ask it states in the video that you place a back bet of £52.24 at the exchange, this will then give you the the £26ish profit win or lose..Just wanted to ask is this a back bet or a lay bets you do at the exchange..yep it say a back bet but I just wanted to double check as I have never used this lock in method ...
Again many thanks for your help and advice...MAX :)LOCK IN.jpg
 
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Jon

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All about the horses today! I do love the flat season, I feel I hit far more refund trigger than with the jumps!
 

homie

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The Comeon soapbox race is worth doing today. Deposit £10 for 15 free spins on Asgard stones with no wagering. I came away with £2.20 but I've had some good wins from that slot before.
 

Jon

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The Comeon soapbox race is worth doing today. Deposit £10 for 15 free spins on Asgard stones with no wagering. I came away with £2.20 but I've had some good wins from that slot before.
aye likewise. I've done well on that slot before as well ;)
 

jkg-jkg

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interesting read about mug betting https://www.beatingbetting.co.uk/matched-betting-tips/mug-betting-experiment/

If you want to cut to the chase: They conclude mug betting is beneficial to avoiding gubbings - almost 3 times more gubbings were received by non-mug bettors than by mug bettors in the experiment.
  • All 20 testers bet only on Premier League and Champions League football matches, except for Cheltenham Festival where they bet on horse racing too
  • No tester was permitted to intentionally take an arb (though beating SP during Cheltenham would have sometimes been inevitable)
With those restrictions, there should be very few, if any, gubbings over a 12 week period. So the gubbings may have more to do with the individual's own profile rather than any mug betting strategy - especially as the sample size is so small

Also "the most commonly ‘gubbed by’ bookmaker was BetVictor" - this I think may prove my point as BetVictor has very few offers these days, and must be gubbing people for other reasons
 
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Jon

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Good handful of offers tonight around the Champions League with PP and WH etc.
 

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