Matched Betting Discussion [OT] Discussion about Matched Betting II {Beginners Guide in 1st Post}

SimonP

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Just been looking through the blog that was posted on here a few days ago.
The guy explains how to do the free bets for that day and goes through what he does.
The thing I found interesting is where he is using extra bets to create guaranteed risk free profit no matter what happens.

For example - He had a risk free profit on a horse offer from Sky. The offer was getting a free bet if the favourite won. He picked his horse and did the usual back and lay but then did a lay bet on the favourite placing. This guaranteed a profit whatever happened.
It seems he does this with some of the football offers by laying certain results.
I am going to look into this a bit more as I would rather take a profit than not.
 

askgar

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SimonP said:
Just been looking through the blog that was posted on here a few days ago.
The guy explains how to do the free bets for that day and goes through what he does.
The thing I found interesting is where he is using extra bets to create guaranteed risk free profit no matter what happens.

For example - He had a risk free profit on a horse offer from Sky. The offer was getting a free bet if the favourite won. He picked his horse and did the usual back and lay but then did a lay bet on the favourite placing. This guaranteed a profit whatever happened.
It seems he does this with some of the football offers by laying certain results.
I am going to look into this a bit more as I would rather take a profit than not.

I know you can do this using ultimatcher and the IF section of the bet matching page, however I can never work out exactly how it works so usually don't bother.
 

auntygeek

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askgar said:
SimonP said:
Just been looking through the blog that was posted on here a few days ago.
The guy explains how to do the free bets for that day and goes through what he does.
The thing I found interesting is where he is using extra bets to create guaranteed risk free profit no matter what happens.

For example - He had a risk free profit on a horse offer from Sky. The offer was getting a free bet if the favourite won. He picked his horse and did the usual back and lay but then did a lay bet on the favourite placing. This guaranteed a profit whatever happened.
It seems he does this with some of the football offers by laying certain results.
I am going to look into this a bit more as I would rather take a profit than not.

I know you can do this using ultimatcher and the IF section of the bet matching page, however I can never work out exactly how it works so usually don't bother.

PA have an IF spreadsheet. I've managed to lock in profit on football (mainly Betstars where they say):

Bet on HT/FT, First Goalscorer, Anytime Scorer market and IF the match ends in a draw, we'll refund your stake.

The only way to do this guaranteed profit-wise is HT/FT. Bet on any close match with HT/FT that does NOT end in a draw. Plug the numbers into the IF spreadsheet then also the lay odds for the draw. They tell you what to stake for the lay HT/FT and the lay draw and you can lock in ££.

This is because you can't have your bet win (meaning no fb) i.e. FT result is home or away win AND the lay bet lose (meaning lost liability) i.e. the match be a draw. The only possible options are:

Match is NOT a draw - No refund, but Draw Lay bet wins = PROFIT in exchange
1) HT/FT bet loses
OR 2) HT/FT bet wins

Match is a draw - Draw Lay bet loses, refund ONLY if your bet loses
1) HT/FT bet loses (fb refund) = PROFIT
OR 2) HT/FT wins (no fb) ... but no, this one is IMPOSSIBLE, if you only bet on a HT/FT market that doesn't end in a draw, that bet cannot both win AND the result be a draw!

I always overthink it and go 'WAIT what if my bet wins so I get no FB and it's also a draw so I lose the liability from that lay bet' and panic... but that's impossible.

I think it's because my brain still finds it hard to get around a lay bet 'winning' which actually mean the thing you've laid didn't happen. It's just too many negatives!

QUICK SUMMARY - the way to guarantee profit with a 'Refund if XXX happens AND your bet loses' is to make sure it's impossible for XXX to happen and your bet to win. Therefore whenever XXX happens your bet will have always lost and you'll get the refund.
 

auntygeek

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SimonP said:
For example - He had a risk free profit on a horse offer from Sky. The offer was getting a free bet if the favourite won. He picked his horse and did the usual back and lay but then did a lay bet on the favourite placing. This guaranteed a profit whatever happened.
It seems he does this with some of the football offers by laying certain results.
I am going to look into this a bit more as I would rather take a profit than not.

I also love locking in profit. 2nd place refunds are great and you can hit them reasonably often but I'd rather take less profit more often.

I'm struggling to get my head around it! Do you have a link to the specific example?

So: Back and Lay a close match, not the favourite.

Favourite wins = Free bet.

Favourite doesn't win = No free bet.

They Lay the favourite placing... so does this mean if the favourite finishes 1,2,3 then you'd lose the liability? How does that make money?

<confused>
 

auntygeek

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stonecrows said:
Oh, yes also I wanted to ask you slot-fiends about BGO. I did the free spins offer on PA a while back but it says not to deposit any money with them because their first deposit offer isn't worth it. But am I right in thinking that some of you do some risk-free offers with BGO? In which case, I should find the best way of doing or getting round the first deposit offer so I can do risk free offers.

Any offer with BGO where they say 'deposit and we'll give you a bonus!' then the bonus has x35 wagering for example, but you wager from your cash balance first. So you could get to a point (and I have, too often!) where you've wagered through £25 of your money, £25-50 of bonus money, not finished the wagering as it's so high, and have nothing to show for it. Worse, you have lost £25.

However any BGO offer that says 'deposit and you'll get free spins!' then winnings from spins have x25 wagering, but wagering comes out of bonus funds FIRST so you never touch the deposit.

I've won £209 and £155 from free spins offers with BGO so they are definitely worth doing, even if you do 99 of them the 100th you could get a 3-figure win!

I'd see if you can sweet talk live chat to take off the deposit bonuses saying you don't want to do them but you do want to do Paris's HASHTAG offer next Wednesday with 20 free spins on Guns n Roses every time you deposit £20. You can do this 3x, so it's 3 opportunities to get a win. But make sure you go on Live Chat in between every deposit and get them to remove the previous wagering requirement otherwise it sticks and all your wagering gets sucked up into that. It's a chore but worth doing imho.
 

Pbrail

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Paddy Power free spins are in - clawed back £17.41 of my losses, around £40 down on that one overall though grr! That's 2 PP offers on the trot that have spanked me...3rd time lucky :p
 

slashingthedebt

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auntygeek said:
SimonP said:
For example - He had a risk free profit on a horse offer from Sky. The offer was getting a free bet if the favourite won. He picked his horse and did the usual back and lay but then did a lay bet on the favourite placing. This guaranteed a profit whatever happened.
It seems he does this with some of the football offers by laying certain results.
I am going to look into this a bit more as I would rather take a profit than not.

I also love locking in profit. 2nd place refunds are great and you can hit them reasonably often but I'd rather take less profit more often.

I'm struggling to get my head around it! Do you have a link to the specific example?

So: Back and Lay a close match, not the favourite.

Favourite wins = Free bet.

Favourite doesn't win = No free bet.

They Lay the favourite placing... so does this mean if the favourite finishes 1,2,3 then you'd lose the liability? How does that make money?

<confused>

I think this is the post Simon is on about http://matchedbettingblog.com/horse-racing/sky-bet-offer-1-50-cheltenham-3/#.VxEV5_krK00
 

Jon

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Pbrail said:
Paddy Power free spins are in - clawed back £17.41 of my losses, around £40 down on that one overall though grr! That's 2 PP offers on the trot that have spanked me...3rd time lucky :p

I am drunk on a work night out

It would not be wise for me to spin!!
 

SimonP

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Layla said:
auntygeek said:
SimonP said:
For example - He had a risk free profit on a horse offer from Sky. The offer was getting a free bet if the favourite won. He picked his horse and did the usual back and lay but then did a lay bet on the favourite placing. This guaranteed a profit whatever happened.
It seems he does this with some of the football offers by laying certain results.
I am going to look into this a bit more as I would rather take a profit than not.

I also love locking in profit. 2nd place refunds are great and you can hit them reasonably often but I'd rather take less profit more often.

I'm struggling to get my head around it! Do you have a link to the specific example?

So: Back and Lay a close match, not the favourite.

Favourite wins = Free bet.

Favourite doesn't win = No free bet.

They Lay the favourite placing... so does this mean if the favourite finishes 1,2,3 then you'd lose the liability? How does that make money?

<confused>

I think this is the post Simon is on about http://matchedbettingblog.com/horse-racing/sky-bet-offer-1-50-cheltenham-3/#.VxEV5_krK00


Yes that is the one @Layla

It gives you more of a chance to get something from the offer even if it is less than the refund.

I like to get big profits but it is good if you can win small profits more often.

It is good to see the actual workings of a bet rather than say what you might be able to do. A bit like the post on PA where someone went through an acca they had and showed all the options that you can do. Seeing it live was great and seeing their thought process helps to understand the actual potential outcomes was really useful. It made me realise why an acca can be more profitable than I thought.
 

auntygeek

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Layla said:
auntygeek said:
SimonP said:
For example - He had a risk free profit on a horse offer from Sky. The offer was getting a free bet if the favourite won. He picked his horse and did the usual back and lay but then did a lay bet on the favourite placing. This guaranteed a profit whatever happened.
It seems he does this with some of the football offers by laying certain results.
I am going to look into this a bit more as I would rather take a profit than not.

I also love locking in profit. 2nd place refunds are great and you can hit them reasonably often but I'd rather take less profit more often.

I'm struggling to get my head around it! Do you have a link to the specific example?

So: Back and Lay a close match, not the favourite.

Favourite wins = Free bet.

Favourite doesn't win = No free bet.

They Lay the favourite placing... so does this mean if the favourite finishes 1,2,3 then you'd lose the liability? How does that make money?

<confused>

I think this is the post Simon is on about http://matchedbettingblog.com/horse-racing/sky-bet-offer-1-50-cheltenham-3/#.VxEV5_krK00

THANKS - I get it now. It was to lay the favourite to win... I like that strategy.

In which case you could get match catcher to find you a close match on any horse just to qualify and you'd profit.

The one thing I can see people getting gubbed from using MC is if they don't pay attention to the odds. Sometimes it throws up really close matches at odds of like 21/21. How many people would regularly put a £25 bet on a horse that high odds?
 

SimonP

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I would rather find my own selections for bets. That is why I don't use the oddsmatcher software. I am hoping the acca software gives a list of potential matches to use. That way you can select what you want.
If you place what it shows then you will be one of many others doing the same thing and that will definitely show up with the bookies.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

auntygeek

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SimonP said:
I would rather find my own selections for bets. That is why I don't use the oddsmatcher software. I am hoping the acca software gives a list of potential matches to use. That way you can select what you want.
If you place what it shows then you will be one of many others doing the same thing and that will definitely show up with the bookies.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I've had a little look at some other acca software and it does give you a ready made selection. Two of the teams I'd never heard of! So yes, that would flag your account. However I changed those two selections to two top Europe teams and bingo, off I go. I don't think there's anything wrong with using the software as long as you use your noggin at the same time :)
 

slashingthedebt

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Just received these email about the Oddsmonkey saga

http://www.oddsmonkey.com/companystatement.aspx
 

Jon

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Can we please be clever about what we say about that as I can do without being done for hosting libeless content!!!
 

slashingthedebt

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Jon said:
Can we please be clever about what we say about that as I can do without being done for hosting libeless content!!!

No problem at least with it out there we all know not to say anything. I was just posting to make you all aware.
 

SimonP

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Jon said:
Can we please be clever about what we say about that as I can do without being done for hosting libeless content!!!

It is probably best if we no longer mention that site anymore. It might not be just your site [member=1]Jon[/member] and could be anyone who says anything themselves. Best let it go I would say.
 

SimonP

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auntygeek said:
SimonP said:
I would rather find my own selections for bets. That is why I don't use the oddsmatcher software. I am hoping the acca software gives a list of potential matches to use. That way you can select what you want.
If you place what it shows then you will be one of many others doing the same thing and that will definitely show up with the bookies.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I've had a little look at some other acca software and it does give you a ready made selection. Two of the teams I'd never heard of! So yes, that would flag your account. However I changed those two selections to two top Europe teams and bingo, off I go. I don't think there's anything wrong with using the software as long as you use your noggin at the same time :)

I agree with you [member=143]auntygeek[/member]
I would use it to get an idea of what could be used and then change a few of the selections to my own. It would just speed things up a bit getting an idea first. I always check the acca close matches on the PA forum as well. You can get an idea from some of the selections posted but I would never copy them exactly, like many others probably do.
 

auntygeek

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Anyone have the PP app on iPhone? [member=1315]Pbrail[/member] [member=2431]Uhhhhh[/member] this sounds like your kind of offer...

They're giving a risk free Kicker bet this weekend. I think they want to funnel people into adding Kicker to Man U v Villa (mentioned in email I got) but you only get return if Man U win by 3 goals or more and then that's only £5 profit. If your kicker bet loses you get a £10 fb.

I think I'm going to have a punt on Liverpool with Kicker, if they can win by 2 goals then it promises £15 profit, by 3 goals £40 profit. If not, then it's only a £1.50 loss on 85% return on fb. Come on goalllls off the back of last night's thriller!

ALSO [member=2431]Uhhhhh[/member] there's a Betfred virtual offer too!
 

Uhhhhh

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Not available on Android :mad:

I'm all over the virtual offer though!
 

Pbrail

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auntygeek said:
Anyone have the PP app on iPhone? [member=1315]Pbrail[/member] [member=2431]Uhhhhh[/member] this sounds like your kind of offer...

They're giving a risk free Kicker bet this weekend. I think they want to funnel people into adding Kicker to Man U v Villa (mentioned in email I got) but you only get return if Man U win by 3 goals or more and then that's only £5 profit. If your kicker bet loses you get a £10 fb.

I think I'm going to have a punt on Liverpool with Kicker, if they can win by 2 goals then it promises £15 profit, by 3 goals £40 profit. If not, then it's only a £1.50 loss on 85% return on fb. Come on goalllls off the back of last night's thriller!

ALSO [member=2431]Uhhhhh[/member] there's a Betfred virtual offer too!

Oh, not seen that one, thanks for heads up - will look. I did get sent an offer of a free bet to use One Touch (in play speed betting) a couple of days ago so plan to give that a crack tomorrow at least.
 

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