[OT] Discussion about matched betting

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Jon

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Look I am happy to hide this thread behind a TMS membership wall but we need to have some dialogue about what they would actually achieve or if we are just clutching at straws

Even the green site doesn't hide theirs in any way
 

Jon

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Roycephus said:
Just seen I've been gubbed from Paddy as well :(

I'm not even a PA member so sure it's nothing to do with a mole haha.

Bingo
 

Jon

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What sort of mugging are you guys doing?

I do a mixture of

Sports to the same value as the offer qualifiers

Fun £1 / £5 accumulators

£10 on slots
 

Roycephus

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I didn't do nearly enough mugging with Paddy so I can have no complaints. From what I've seen though ALOT of people have got this email, including people who have only ever placed a few bets.

My guess is they've pretty much done a blanket exclusion for anyone who's Promo bets make up over a certain percentage of their total bets, perhaps 50%+. But this is complete conjecture and I'm sure there is a bit more too it.
 

JohnnyDebt

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Roycephus said:
I didn't do nearly enough mugging with Paddy so I can have no complaints. From what I've seen though ALOT of people have got this email, including people who have only ever placed a few bets.

My guess is they've pretty much done a blanket exclusion for anyone who's Promo bets make up over a certain percentage of their total bets, perhaps 50%+. But this is complete conjecture and I'm sure there is a bit more too it.
My Paddy Account records show the following:

0 x Accas
10 x Offers
5 x Free (SNR)
18 x Muggs which include a few Arbs (tut, tut)
19 x Horses from the above.
Average Odds 3.71

I did not get the email ................... YET.
 

Checky

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On a different note... I love BOG.... Up £20 so far tonight on Hills from it...


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auntygeek

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Danny said:
On a different note... I love BOG.... Up £20 so far tonight on Hills from it...


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BOG?

Really glad the acca's are working out for you [member=265]JD[/member]
 

SAFC2403

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Havent had any gubbing email as yet. But then i havent done any offers on paddy for well over a month - had a £2 bonus on slots this morning but thats it.

Also my username on bookies is different to the username on PA - and on here.

Starting to get paranoid about it all.
 

Checky

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auntygeek said:
Danny said:
On a different note... I love BOG.... Up £20 so far tonight on Hills from it...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BOG?

Really glad the acca's are working out for you [member=265]JD[/member]
Best odds guarantee... Means if you take a price early that's lower than the starting price they pay you at the odds it starts with... So effectively becomes an Arb without placing it as one...

Obviously the horse needs to win to get the better odds


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Storm89

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Storm89 said:
auntygeek said:
Storm89 said:
Thank you :) both :) Okay next question, say someone had a partially matched bet on smarkets and then stupidly cancelled the unmatched part how do you sort it out? I can see a video about partially matched bets on betfair, but that's cancelling the whole bet if unmatched or tweaking figures around doesn't look like i can do that.
First question - I almost always use Smarkets unless the odds after commission is more profitable on betfair. The extra bit of commission helps with my profit margins.

If you need to sort out unmatched/partially matched bets go on trickybet advanced calculator and there are options to help :)

I never bet unless there's enough money in the market so it's fully matched straight away
I've worked it out on the calculator; hopefully done that right. Do I just place another bet for the remainder shown on the calculator?
 

The Reverend

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placed 3 bets this evening.

1) A freebee from a completed bet earlier in the week
2) A betting requirement to get a free bet - layed off for pennies
3) The related free bet from item 2

I can't place any more unless I put more money in at the exchange. I've put an extra £80 in this evening so I shouldn't be putting any more in.
 

askgar

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I'm pretty sure the mole theory is a load of rubbish, I doubt there is anything manual about the gubbings, it will all be done by computer algorithms. I use the same username almost everywhere (I'm lazy) and I've received 0 gubbings so far. ALSO paddy are by far my most profitable bookie, I've made £400 profit from their offers including a LOT from slots. I'm pretty certain there will be patterns to the gubbings, its just we (meaning the general MB community, not just us on TMS) don't have anywhere near enough data to find the pattern.
 

The Reverend

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askgar said:
I'm pretty sure the mole theory is a load of rubbish, I doubt there is anything manual about the gubbings, it will all be done by computer algorithms. I use the same username almost everywhere (I'm lazy) and I've received 0 gubbings so far. ALSO paddy are by far my most profitable bookie, I've made £400 profit from their offers including a LOT from slots.
I don't think there is a mole here, but I bet that they will have someone monitoring PA. If only to see what is a hot thread and then seeing who bets on those things. You will find a whole bunch of accounts have probably just been connected somehow - maybe using the referal links on PA - and BAM! account gubbed.

I would REALLY recommend you set up seperate usernames for MB and if you dont, try not to put too much identifiable stuff that they could match against. Just because you AREN'T paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.
 

astevec

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Put bet on sky for tonight's game, did RR promo in Vegas, nice £30.
 

Jon

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..he gave me nothing.....again
 

Zzil

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I am new and only on my 2nd offer. Today I have placed a bet to use a BetFred, free £30 offer. I have placed my lay bet on Betfair but it says it's unmatched. I now don't know what to do. I don't know how to tell if the whole bet is unmatched or not. It looks like it is all unmatched. I have bet on the Southampton vs West Brom football match tomorrow. I have backed West Brom at odds of 6 on both. I know that this kind of thing sometimes resolves itself, but as a newbie I'm now terrified that I'm going to lose my £126.05 that is currently in BetFair. I am hoping you can answer in time! The football match is a 3pm on Sat 16th.

Thanks
 

Jon

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It will probably have matched by the time the game comes around
 
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