Matched Betting Specific Offer Question / Info Paddy Power question

[Elijah]

How would I use the "£10 risk free first bet" promotion to guarantee some profit using matched betting?

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If your Paddy Power bet loses they refund you £10 in cash, but nothing if it wins. So it's not like a normal qualifying bet to earn a free bet and for the life of me I can't work out what to do?

 

[homie]

How would I use the "£10 risk free first bet" promotion to guarantee some profit using matched betting?

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If your Paddy Power bet loses they refund you £10 in cash, but nothing if it wins. So it's not like a normal qualifying bet to earn a free bet and for the life of me I can't work out what to do?

2 choices.

Punt £10 on something you think will win. Get your cash back if it loses.
or
Back something for £10 on Paddy and underlay it on the exchange to guarantee a profit win or lose.
For a cash refund the calculation is the same as using a free bet so you can just set your calculator to freebet stake not returned and lay whatever it tells you to on smarkets. Should be able to lock in around £8 risk free depending on odds and your commission.

Because you are underlaying i.e laying less the the full value of the bet you stand to win either from the first bet or from the refund if you lose.

 

[Knopfler]

Homie beat me to it, ha ha. Was going to post something similar.

I would be tempted to do a Punt (in other words just do a Back Bet without doing a Lay Bet at all) on something that I thought had a good chance of winning. With this option if the bet loses you get the £10 cash refunded, so have not lost anything BUT if the bet wins you get a larger payout.

For a guaranteed profit, you could use the Normal Calculator in SNR mode as suggested by @homie to underlay OR you could use a Risk Free Equal Profit Calculator instead, which should give similar results.

Before you do anything though, if you are only using Betfair at the moment, best to get 0% commission sorted with Smarkets and/or Matchbook if you do not already have this set up, to reduce any future fees.

 

[Elijah]

Thanks a lot guys

I was tempted to punt on something I thought would win, but I think I'll have a look at the weekends football and make my decision if I see something I fancy. If not I'll go for some guaranteed profit, albeit slightly less money.

I also read on some blog that there was a merger between Paddy Power and Betfair and they reccomended not to lay on Betfair for this reason? So maybe Smarkets and/or Matchbook is worth a look

 

[Jon]

Thanks a lot guys

I was tempted to punt on something I thought would win, but I think I'll have a look at the weekends football and make my decision if I see something I fancy. If not I'll go for some guaranteed profit, albeit slightly less money.

I also read on some blog that there was a merger between Paddy Power and Betfair and they reccomended not to lay on Betfair for this reason? So maybe Smarkets and/or Matchbook is worth a look

personally i think you are fine laying on betfair

it's betfair sportsbook that's merged with paddypower, not betfair exchange

 

[Elijah]

Didn't fancy making a new topic for this so thought I'd put it in here.

I have a free £10 bet on BetVictor but it has to be an accumulator. How complex is this for matched betting purposes, do I lay all 3 choices on the exchange?

£10 Free Bet – Any Sport Acca (3+ selections)

 

[ted]

Smarkets (under accumulators) and Betfair (search for acca) will have options to lay football accumulators at the weekend if your free bet will last to then.

You do have the option of doing sequential lays but I find that complicated/time consuming.

Worth maybe just having a bet with it and not laying if you aren't sure.

 

[hanna.obrien.79]

I have this offer too that I am unsure how to tackle. I cannot find accas on Betfair or Smarkets?

 

[ted]

There is nothing on offer yet on either. I would say you will definitely get a few options ahead of Thursdays Euro qualifiers. There's an outside chance of a couple before tomorrow's games in the EFL trophy but I couldn't say for sure.

 

[homie]

When you move onto more advanced matched betting it's worth learning to lay sequentially as it will give you more options and you can usually extract more profit from choosing your own matches.

 

[Elijah]

When you move onto more advanced matched betting it's worth learning to lay sequentially as it will give you more options and you can usually extract more profit from choosing your own matches.

Does it work something like this?

Place the 3+selection acca on bookmakers. (make sure events are well spread out with enough time to help you make a decision)

e.g three horse races at 12:00, 14:10, 15:30

Lay your selection on the first horse race at 12:00.

If you win on the exchange you have some profit, but your free acca is done at the first stage.
If you win at the bookmakers, you have lost money on the exchange but your acca is still on

I guess that is the principle, it's just calculating the best stakes to lay right? Is there a calculator specifically for this?

 

[homie]

Does it work something like this?

Place the 3+selection acca on bookmakers. (make sure events are well spread out with enough time to help you make a decision)

e.g three horse races at 12:00, 14:10, 15:30

Lay your selection on the first horse race at 12:00.

If you win on the exchange you have some profit, but your free acca is done at the first stage.
If you win at the bookmakers, you have lost money on the exchange but your acca is still on

I guess that is the principle, it's just calculating the best stakes to lay right? Is there a calculator specifically for this?

That is pretty much right.
In your example if the first selection wins you then roll the loss at the exchange from the first bet onto the second bet and lay that and so on until you have either won all of them or come to a loser.

I'd avoid horses for accas by the way because the odds can drift too much.

Is this the Betvictor sign up offer? odds monkey have it on their acca finder if it is. Just change the calculator to Lay sequential Free Bet. When the first leg settles click W or L for won or lost and it will tell you what to do for the next leg, if anything.

 

[Elijah]

I messed up my free acca (to do the sequential lay bet) because I bet on three tennis matches and I'm worried the first one will not be complete by the time the second one begins. So haven't bothered to lay it on the exchange yet.

Lesson learned for the future though. Will just keep an eye on these matches and make my move if it looks favourable to do so. May even make more profit if the first match wins and I haven't had to lay it.

 

[Knopfler]

@Elijah - you have to be careful when betting on tennis games to check out the 'tennis retirement rules' for each bookie as they can differ and not 'match' the Exchanges. There is a guide on OM and no doubt there will be one on PA too.

Don't want to say too much in case it confuses you at this stage but some bets you need to 'dutch' with another bookie instead of doing a Lay Bet at the Exchange.

 

[rninja]

Just wait until the weekends (when it's not the international break) and you can lay one of the accumulators at Betfair or Smarkets. Far easier than waiting around to sequentially lay.