Matched Betting Discussion Cheltenham Festival 2022 Matched Betting Offers

[rninja]

Not even! Looks like straight cash refund! How do you calculate these ones?

(assuming 0% commission at Smarkets or Matchbook via OddsMonkey or Profit Accumulator).

Various tactics, for example:
Back £20 at Skybet on horse A @ 3/1 (4.00).
Lay £20 on horse A at Smarkets @ 4.00.

This is a hit and hope strategy with no qualifying loss if you find and exact back and lay odds match.

Or thinking about it a bit more, it's a refund on lose offer so you wanna underlay at the exchange to maximise the amount of any potential refund.

Top of the head calc's: Back £20 on Skybet @ 4.00 (potential win £60), lay £15 on Smarkets at 4.00 (potential liability £45.

If horse wins you gain £15 (60 minus 45), or if lose get £20 cash refund.

 

[Castro]

(assuming 0% commission at Smarkets or Matchbook via OddsMonkey or Profit Accumulator).

Various tactics, for example:
Back £20 at Skybet on horse A @ 3/1 (4.00).
Lay £20 on horse A at Smarkets @ 4.00.

This is a hit and hope strategy with no qualifying loss if you find and exact back and lay odds match.

Or thinking about it a bit more, it's a refund on lose offer so you wanna underlay at the exchange to maximise the amount of any potential refund.

Top of the head calc's: Back £20 on Skybet @ 4.00 (potential win £60), lay £15 on Smarkets at 4.00 (potential liability £45.

If horse wins you gain £15 (60 minus 45), or if lose get £20 cash refund.

Forgive my ignorance but here you would get £15 if you win (£60-£45) and £15 if your horse loses (£15 lay plus no loss on bet) is that correct?


So this is preferable to laying £20, cancelling out any win but potentially giving you £20 for a loss as it's more consistent.

Am i following this correctly?

How does one use OM tools to get the underlay correct? Is this just a standard qual type bet?

Also I'm on 5% betfair commision

Not sure if to split my money between betfair and smarkets or if the drop in available funds at exchange is justified by the decrease in commission.... decisions decisions!

 

[Miss Matched Betting]

There's an offer from Black Type at the moment. Place a £25 acca each week from now until 12th March and receive a £10 free bet for Cheltenham. So that's a potential £40 in free bets right there

 

[rninja]

Forgive my ignorance but here you would get £15 if you win (£60-£45) and £15 if your horse loses (£15 lay plus no loss on bet) is that correct?


So this is preferable to laying £20, cancelling out any win but potentially giving you £20 for a loss as it's more consistent.

Am i following this correctly?

How does one use OM tools to get the underlay correct? Is this just a standard qual type bet?

Also I'm on 5% betfair commision

Not sure if to split my money between betfair and smarkets or if the drop in available funds at exchange is justified by the decrease in commission.... decisions decisions!

Hi, the £15 if your horse wins is from the back bet winning at the bookie (£20 x 3 = £60 minus £45 lay liability = £15). And similarly if your horse loses then the lay gives you a return.

Refund on lose offers should be underlayed. Have a play with a MB calculator with dummy figures - treat as if SNR.
On balance, I'd lay less than £20.

You should be able to get 0% via OM for Smarkets and some other exchanges.

 

[ted]

There's an offer from Black Type at the moment. Place a £25 acca each week from now until 12th March and receive a £10 free bet for Cheltenham. So that's a potential £40 in free bets right there

Ive seen this and may jump on it but my concern is that you MUST do it each week (unless they gub you midway) and particularly the last acca has to be placed and settled on the Monday before Cheltenham. Haven't checked fixtures but not a huge amount happening most Mondays.

 

[Miss Matched Betting]

Ive seen this and may jump on it but my concern is that you MUST do it each week (unless they gub you midway) and particularly the last acca has to be placed and settled on the Monday before Cheltenham. Haven't checked fixtures but not a huge amount happening most Mondays.

If you have Oddsmonkey, in the Acca finder theres a dropdown menu especially for this offer, so I presume you could just use that. It is the most random teams and leagues though, so could be risking a gubbing. I don't know how valuable Black Type are in terms of regular offers to be fair. Not long been signed up to them.

 

[Castro]

ive got about 20 sign up offers to get through before this kicks off...

I'm hoping an hour in the morning and a lunch hour plus 10 mins here or there will be enough to take part in enough offers to make it worthwhile!

 

[mcp]

Offers are starting to appear I see

This one from Skybet gives you £80 in free bets over the 4 days!!

I know this is a matched betting thread but this is a pure punt for me. 2017 and 2018 hit winners with this offer on two of the four days = well in profit.

 

[Jon]

I know this is a matched betting thread but this is a pure punt for me. 2017 and 2018 hit winners with this offer on two of the four days = well in profit.

Yeah I do mix in some regular punting during Chelts or else it can become a bit of a 'by the numbers' experience which isn't great if it lasts 4 days in a row lol

 

[Jon]

Here are each of the 4 Skybet offers

No idea if there are close odds at the moment or not..

2019 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle - Money Back If You Lose As Cash - Non Runner No Bet betting | Horse Racing | Sky Bet Mobile | £5 Free Bet Every Week

Bet on the 2019 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle - Money Back If You Lose As Cash - Non Runner No Bet & all your favourite Horse Racing markets with Sky Bet Mobile. Bet now!

m.skybet.com

2019 Ballymore Novice Hurdle - Money Back If You Lose As Cash - Non Runner No Bet betting | Horse Racing | Sky Bet Mobile | £5 Free Bet Every Week

Bet on the 2019 Ballymore Novice Hurdle - Money Back If You Lose As Cash - Non Runner No Bet & all your favourite Horse Racing markets with Sky Bet Mobile. Bet now!

m.skybet.com

2019 JLT Novice Chase - Money Back If You Lose As Cash - Non Runner No Bet betting | Horse Racing | Sky Bet Mobile | £5 Free Bet Every Week

Bet on the 2019 JLT Novice Chase - Money Back If You Lose As Cash - Non Runner No Bet & all your favourite Horse Racing markets with Sky Bet Mobile. Bet now!

m.skybet.com

2019 Triumph Hurdle - Money Back If You Lose As Cash - Non Runner No Bet betting | Horse Racing | Sky Bet Mobile | £5 Free Bet Every Week

Bet on the 2019 Triumph Hurdle - Money Back If You Lose As Cash - Non Runner No Bet & all your favourite Horse Racing markets with Sky Bet Mobile. Bet now!

m.skybet.com

 

[Knopfler]

Wish I still had Sky, sigh! Only thing I still seem able to do is price boosts but at small stakes ...................

 

[Castro]

I just got a new job!

Never been so pissed off about getting a new job before in my life. Have to start on 25th Feb so will miss Chelts.

Anyway, for those of you doing cheltenham for the first time I thought a list of 'must have' bookies would helpful, so you have time to open accounts and get a couple of mug horse bets done before the big event.

I would want....

Betfair
Smarkets and or Matchbook (to lay any betfair bets as well as others)
Paddy Power
William Hill
Coral
Bet 365
Ladbrooks
Betway
Betbright
BetFred
10bet
Sportnation
Genting

Just those will keep you busy, I'm pretty sure they will have cheltenham offers of one kind or another.

Any other good bookmakers from last year that people can remember that aren't on the list?

From this list and the additions by @rninja I'm just missing:
PP (can get account reopened but no sign up bonus )
Betbright
10Bet
Sportnation
Genting
Boylesports
Jenningsbet
Toals

Any I should definitely prioritise?

 

[Knopfler]

Hi, @Castro - I only did a few offers last year but the main ones were with PP, Genting, Betfred and WHill (I don't have Sky as already mentioned).

Not sure how much it varies from year to year, though

 

[Jon]

A handful of tips from the Profit Accumulator Cheltenham 2019 page I spotted a few days ago

Here are some things to keep in mind:

• Do some horse racing offers before the festival starts. Practice the process of placing bets on horse racing so you know what to do and what to expect.
• Get your money into the right places. Make sure you have the maximum amount of bank available, so you can maximise your earnings.
• Try to use shared liability. There can only be one winner of a horse race, and this can be used to your advantage. The amount of money you need to lay a bet is based on your maximum potential loss, therefore if you lay two different results on a market that can only have one outcome, only one of those bets can lose. What this means is that the most you can lose is whichever selection has the largest liability. The liability on the selection with lower liability is ignored for the purposes of calculating how much money you need to lay the bet. As mentioned, all three of the exchanges have got reduced commission offers on at the moment (hallelujah), so you wont really save any money on commission payments - but it does mean that you can improve your cash-flow and its especially relevant if you have a small bank.
• Be organised. There are a lot of races and a lot offers over Cheltenham. Keep a note of everything and be aware of what bets you have on. The more organised you are, the less likely you are to make any silly mistakes (it happens to the best of us).
• Get your bets on early. A lot of the time, the best matches/prices will occur early on in the day. Liquidity won’t be a problem either, there will be a lot of people betting over the four days.
• Use the forum. A really good resource for information, or if you have any problems or questions.
• We have dedicated close matches and price boost threads for the festival. Invaluable to get the best matches,

 

[OCTOPUS]

Hi, as most of you know I am fairly new to matched betting, I tend to go with the slow and steady approach, about 3 offers per week. I have just recently started to do horse race bets for my free bets, but I dont do with ones with the highest odds (to try to avoid getting gubbed). Obviously with Cheltenham approaching, I am trying to get my head round horse racing a bit more, I am with Oddsmonkey and have been having a look a the racing software. I'm just wondering which are likely to be the simplest offers to do please. Also hoping that they are going to be listed on Oddsmonkey Reload Offers. Also do most people stick to one or two bookmakers, whilst trying to share the liability between a couple of the exchanges? Any advice would be welcome as I feel a bit out of my depth.

 

[jkg-jkg]

On OM there will be a daily Racing Offers summary (as there is all days in fact). Offers (at the top of the page) and choose Daily Offer Calendar - e.g. in there you will find, today, "Wednesdays Racing Offers" and this will summarise the offers (they will sometimes have a separate entry for the big offers in the calendar too).

Simplest offers will be the moneyback if lose offers (Sky have an easy one as it is cash back so can be punted if you want). It is only overwelming as the number of offers is big, but approach each as you would any other offer on it's own and you will do ok.

 

[Jon]

Aye good advice, all the offers are pretty much the same as you would get any Saturday race day

 

[OCTOPUS]

Thank you

 

[rninja]

Best to matched bet on lots of different horses in each race for all the different offers. This will combine the liabilities - then your exchange account won't be decimated (as only 1 horse can win a race).

 

[Jon]

Best to matched bet on lots of different horses in each race for all the different offers. This will combine the liabilities - then your exchange account won't be decimated (as only 1 horse can win a race).

aye great advice.

Logic says there will be more than one offer for each race so just combine them

EEEEE SO EXCITING! IT'S NEARLY HERE!

Anyone know when the preview evenings are?