Coronavirus Discussion So.... The Coronavirus / COVID-19

Bugboybill

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A bit surprised at claims all adults over 50 will have first dose by end of March. I’m 58 and the Omni vaccine calculator says mine will be between 5th and 24th April at current rates.
 

Sherliarty

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Looking at this VERY SHARP drop from mid Jan - What do you think is causing it? Lockdown? Vaccine? Both?

The US for example hasn't REALLY had a lockdown and their case numbers of tumbling as well!
I don't think there is much point in looking at US and comparing as a whole, each state has done their own thing. Some have locked down, some haven't then everything in between. Plus some states, the populations are so spread out, no need to socially distance! I'd love to know how the US comes up with their health stats as unlike many other countries, they don't really have a centrally run health service.
 

Jon

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An additional 427,073 vaccinations have been reported over the past 24 hours in England.

An overall total of 14,318,115 in England.



Monday we were down 42k compared to the previous monday,
Tuesday we were down 32k, cumulative -74k
Wednesday we were up about 2k, cumulative -72k,
Thursday we were up 84k, cumulative +12k.

I thought were were gonna see some low numbers for the next 2 weeks!!
 

Jon

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"First dose of Pfizer Covid vaccine cuts infections by 75 per cent, new study finds"

If this is the case then can we not just abort the 2nd jab and use that one to jab more people and just give everyone 1 jab?
 

EdibleDormouse

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"First dose of Pfizer Covid vaccine cuts infections by 75 per cent, new study finds"

If this is the case then can we not just abort the 2nd jab and use that one to jab more people and just give everyone 1 jab?
If my numbers are right, that's still around 3.44 million people (20% needing hospital treatment of the 25% that the vaccine didn't work for) who are likely to need medical intervention. That's without getting into long Covid, which is about 1 in 10 at the current rates. Those still look like numbers that could poleaxe the NHS to me.

Yes, let's plough through, but especially with mutations happening all the time, let's get those top up jabs done too. I want life back to (near) normal so I can do my job, and 75% of anything doesn't fill me with confidence.

I'm just playing with numbers here. It's my thing. I wish it wasn't as they scare the wits out of me.
 

Jon

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An additional 400,823 vaccinations have been reported over the past 24 hours in England.

over 1million doses mid-week now
 
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Bugboybill

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If my numbers are right, that's still around 3.44 million people (20% needing hospital treatment of the 25% that the vaccine didn't work for) who are likely to need medical intervention. That's without getting into long Covid, which is about 1 in 10 at the current rates. Those still look like numbers that could poleaxe the NHS to me.

Yes, let's plough through, but especially with mutations happening all the time, let's get those top up jabs done too. I want life back to (near) normal so I can do my job, and 75% of anything doesn't fill me with confidence.

I'm just playing with numbers here. It's my thing. I wish it wasn't as they scare the wits out of me.
No, not necessarily. The study was looking at the reduction in transmission, which is an additional benefit to the protection of 92% from becoming ill. So the benefit of 75% is to the surroundings and people in it. I do think we should continue giving 2 jabs though to get to that 92% protection rate.
 
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EdibleDormouse

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No, not necessarily. The study was looking at the reduction in transmission, which is an additional benefit to the protection of 92% from becoming ill. So the benefit of 75% is to the surroundings and people in it. I do think we should continue giving 2 jabs though to get to that 92% protection rate.
Ah, that changes the numbers completely. Do you have a link to the actual article? I promise I'll do more encouraging numbers based off that (but maybe in the morning, as I am having a cruddy long Covid day).
 
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Jon

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it's gonna be a weekend of these sort of headlines

 

Bugboybill

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WELL!!

While I welcome this target it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest that this is based on speeding up. At the current rate of vaccinations and bearing in mind second jabs will be kicking in soon we are on target to give a first jab to everybody from 18 years up by mid July. I checked this out on the COVID jab calculator. And of course we have more vaccines to come, including one that requires only one jab.
 
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Jon

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While I welcome this target it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest that this is based on speeding up. At the current rate of vaccinations and bearing in mind second jabs will be kicking in soon we are on target to give a first jab to everybody from 18 years up by mid July. I checked this out on the COVID jab calculator. And of course we have more vaccines to come, including one that requires only one jab.
yeah I can't see why it's going to take as long as the end of July to get all adults done at the current rate they are going!
 

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Looks like not much will change in the near future. Schools reopen and you can go to a park with a chum and have a coffee from 8th March and meet in groups up to 6 outside from end of March. Retail not reopening until April.
 

EdibleDormouse

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We're supposed to be shielding still until the end of March, but having been jabbed, I think a socially distanced picnic in the park with my daughter and Granddaughter would be a small risk worth taking :)
I'm now supposed to be shielding in my own right, but also taking the "as I've been jabbed, I'll just be ultra-careful" route. Looking forward to sitting in the park with a friend and a coffee soon.
 

Jon

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what do we think about this roadmap then?

Seems like it's quite a slow one but i think it's worth it if it means we can go to sports / concerts etc again by June!

Also at some point we are going to have to stop getting so focused on the infection numbers

If 95% of deaths are stopped we would be able to have days of infections in the 10,000+ and naff all deaths or hospitalisations..
 

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