Coronavirus Discussion So.... The Coronavirus / COVID-19

EdibleDormouse

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I think 21st June is going to be a half-step rather than pushed back.

Putting it selfishly, I hope so. I don't really want to lose the income from the same concert now on its third time of re-booking AGAIN.
 

Jon

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Just look at the double jab difference!!


BOLTON

31 May: Age 0-59: 141 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 116 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 110 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 109 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 156 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 210 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 158 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 166 cases. Age 60+: 10cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 122 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 117 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 142 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 149 cases. Age 60+: 10cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 137 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

BLACKBURN AND DARWEN

31 May: Age 0-59: 100 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 62 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 106 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 101 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 112 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 87 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 90 cases. Age 60+: 9 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 57 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 74 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 60 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 77 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

KIRKLEES

31 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 54 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 63 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 94 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 86 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 74 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 63 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 62cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 44 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 73 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 65 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 81 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

ROSSENDALE

31 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 20 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 16 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 30 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 43 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 24 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 20 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 13 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 5 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

HYNDBURN

31 May: Age 0-59: 37 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 7 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 22 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 23 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 10 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 21 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 11 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 4 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 15 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 12 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 7 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

BEDFORD

31 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 36 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 35 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 42 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 31 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 54 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 72 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

MANCHESTER

31 May: Age 0-59: 140 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 108 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 118 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 102 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 120 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 99 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 96 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 98 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 51 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 47 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 57 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 46 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

BURY

31 May: Age 0-59: 49 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 30 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 44 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 36 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 13 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 19 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 14 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 17 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 21 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

LEICESTER

31 May: Age 0-59: 42 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 31 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 28 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 43 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 61 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

24 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

23 May: Age 0-59: 23 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

22 May: Age 0-59: 36 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

21 May: Age 0-59: 28 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

20 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

19 May: Age 0-59: 41 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases
 

Jon

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Do we think the final stage of the great unlocking is going to be announced next week then? All the noise seems to be about a 2 week delay which I probably think most people would accept

Personally I'm sat here waiting for US President Uncle Joe to open the damn border so we can fly there in September!
 

Jon

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England hospitals still flat as a pancake!

Numbers are still fairly flat - having shown signs of a rise but then stabilised a bit again over the past few days of data. If this trend continues, that's obviously enormously encouraging and would see the hospital admission rate continue to be revised downwards. That's what we want - really, what we need - to see to justify moving to Step 4.

While this data is UK-wide, I do want to talk a little bit about the differences between the four nations. Because we're starting to see quite big disparities in hospital numbers.

In England, hospital occupancy is currently dead flat, and has been for a while: an utterly straight line in terms of the number of people in English hospitals with covid at any given time, at very manageable numbers.

In Scotland, it's a very different story. Hospital occupancy has been rising there for about a month now, with worrying signs of exponential growth in recent admission figures - with numbers more than doubling over the past three weeks.

And in Wales - well, whatever's in the Welsh water, we need to be drinking it across the four nations. Despite a small rise in cases, Welsh hospital admissions have been absolutely nosediving over the past couple of weeks and there are now only twenty-odd covid patients in hospital across the whole of the country.
 

Jon

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1tsRBI3_d.webp


its all about that jab!
 

Jon

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LOTS of chatter on the Internet about HUGE Vaccine supply next week and there being LOTS of mass vaccination events planned.
 

Jon

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quite high numbers today but man alive that 2nd jab power!

BOLTON

06 June: Age 0-59: 128 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 84 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 115 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 159 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 111 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 126 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 141 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 116 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 110 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 109 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 156 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 210 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 158 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

BLACKBURN AND DARWEN

06 June: Age 0-59: 128 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 92 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 114 cases. Age 60+: 9 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 148 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 161 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 155 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 100 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 62 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 106 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 101 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 112 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 87 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

KIRKLEES

06 June: Age 0-59: 68 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 57 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 67 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 56 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 68 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 51 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 54 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 63 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 94 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 86 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 74 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

ROSSENDALE

06 June: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 23 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 48 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 31 cases. Age 60+: *0 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 37 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 20 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 16 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 30 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 43 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

HYNDBURN

06 June: Age 0-59: 37 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 34 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 46 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 35 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 37 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 7 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 22 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 23 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 10 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

BEDFORD

06 June: Age 0-59: 34 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 44 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 31 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 51 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 35 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 41 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 27 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 36 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 35 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 42 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 33 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

MANCHESTER

06 June: Age 0-59: 173 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 148 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 183 cases. Age 60+: 7 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 221 cases. Age 60+: 9 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 217 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 216 cases. Age 60+: 6 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 140 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 108 cases. Age 60+: 5 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 118 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 102 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 120 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 99 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 96 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

BURY

06 June: Age 0-59: 54 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 43 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 65 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 60 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 60 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 49 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 32 cases. Age 60+: 8 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 30 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 44 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 40 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 36 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 29 cases. Age 60+: 4 cases

LEICESTER

06 June: Age 0-59: 50 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

05 June: Age 0-59: 39 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

04 June: Age 0-59: 62 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

03 June: Age 0-59: 66 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

02 June: Age 0-59: 48 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

01 June: Age 0-59: 58 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

31 May: Age 0-59: 42 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

30 May: Age 0-59: 31 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

29 May: Age 0-59: 28 cases. Age 60+: 0 cases

28 May: Age 0-59: 43 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases

27 May: Age 0-59: 52 cases. Age 60+: 2 cases

26 May: Age 0-59: 61 cases. Age 60+: 1 cases

25 May: Age 0-59: 38 cases. Age 60+: 3 cases
 

EdibleDormouse

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My corner of London starting to look like a hotspot too according to the ZOE app.

Maths geek here hasn't sat down with the numbers on a piece of paper yet, but the week on week increase to my eye looks like 30% (cases) on last Friday rather than 60% the week before. The implication is it's slowing, but spreading. Not necessarily the worst case scenario. We were never going to contain this in pockets anyway - this is a small island and people move around.

I think we're looking at a two week delay.
 

Jon

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doubling time as also extended for the last 2 days in a row!
 

Jon

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Today's figures - testing up 29% on last week, cases up 52.5%.

Yesteray's figures - testing up 29%, cases up 58.1%.

Day before that's figures - testing up 22.1%, cases up 63.2%.

Day before that's figures - testing up 11%, cases up 66%.

Rate of increase of cases slows down for 3rd day running.
 

EdibleDormouse

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Today's figures - testing up 29% on last week, cases up 52.5%.

Yesteray's figures - testing up 29%, cases up 58.1%.

Day before that's figures - testing up 22.1%, cases up 63.2%.

Day before that's figures - testing up 11%, cases up 66%.

Rate of increase of cases slows down for 3rd day running.
Damn, you beat me to it. Was just doing those sums!

I'd lay money on a fortnight's "wait and see".
 

Jon

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Damn, you beat me to it. Was just doing those sums!

I'd lay money on a fortnight's "wait and see".
happy with a fortnight but I think 4 weeks is total overkill especially as ZOE 'sees in the future' and can see the rate decreasing
 

Jon

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Four days of lengthening doubling times!
Most recent 7-day average: 7,145
Average a week ago: 4,785
Weekly change: 49.3%
Doubling time: 1/ base 2 log of (7145/4785) = 1.73 weeks = 12.1 days.
Previous doubling times:
12/06: 11.5 days
11/06: 10.6 days
10/06: 9.9 days
09/06: 9.6 days
08/06: 10.2 days
07/06: 11.4 days
06/06: 12.2 days
 

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