Coronavirus Discussion So.... The Coronavirus / COVID-19

Jon

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We’re booked to go to France to a mobile home park on 6th July. Balance is due in 3 days. Will pay it but feels so strange paying for something that may not happen/unsure if it wise to still go. My husband hasn’t worked in about 8 weeks so can’t really be taking any more time out. But will Nicola sturgeon ever let us go back to work?
Is there a feeling north of the border that she is holding back Scotland while England at least had a bit of a plan?
 

hanna.obrien.79

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Is there a feeling north of the border that she is holding back Scotland while England at least had a bit of a plan?

I think the general feeling is she’s making the right decisions at the right time. However I’m frustrated at seeing things like ice cream vans out and about selling non essential 99’s to kids with no gloves, mask or socially distancing. Hoping to get a road map on Thursday.
 
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j4v3d

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England records 166 new deaths

NHS England has announced 166 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 25,080.

Of the 166 new deaths announced today:

– 31 occurred on May 19
– 63 occurred on May 18
– 17 occurred on May 17

The figures also show 48 of the new deaths took place between May 4 and May 16, five deaths occurred in April and the remaining two deaths took place in March, with the earliest death on March 24.
 

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Rolls Royce axing 9000 jobs.
 

fraserbooks

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I have just read a very encouraging South Korean study. Reports of people being reinfected were due to them coughing up dead lung cells. The test can't tell the difference between dead and live virus. They have not found any cases of any one who has tested negative passing on the disease. Also because the virus does not infect the cell nucleus it will not become chronic like HIV or hepatitis. It means immunity passports and vaccines should work and eventually herd immunity should help.
 

Sherliarty

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I hope they roll out antibody tests soon. I was very ill and GP over phone thought I had covid but I was never offered the test so I don't know. It would be great to have immunity, even if only for a year.
 
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Jon

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I hope they roll out antibody tests soon. I was very ill and GP over phone thought I had covid but I was never offered the test so I don't know. It would be great to have immunity, even if only for a year.
Got £69?

 
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Sherliarty

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I will look into that. I might wait until I see some reviews as £69 is a lot to waste if it turns out to be a dud or difficult to use. If it is as effective as it says, I will definitely try it out.
 

Elantos

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It doesn't look like one of the pin prick home tests, but rather one where you send back to them and they presumably do a full serology test which is more accurate. There are others with 100% sensitivity but are more expensive:

Cambridge are only moving their lectures online. Supervisions, small group teachings and probably practicals are to go ahead, or at least that's the impression I got from the emails. It's not like we ask very many questions during lectures anyway like in other countries and we have very few lectures here in the final term due to exams.
 
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fraserbooks

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I always thought lectures were a fairly useless way of teaching any one any thing. When I was a student we had a lot of people who did not bother to turn up and still got decent grades.
 

Danilene

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I hope they roll out antibody tests soon. I was very ill and GP over phone thought I had covid but I was never offered the test so I don't know. It would be great to have immunity, even if only for a year.
I do hope you get better soon. One of my internet acquaintances caught the virus at the beginning of March, probably on public transport (Tube). She's on the mend, but she was really ill for 6 weeks (her immune system got a little overexcited) and she nearly ended up being hospitalised.
She says it's far, far worse than the flu, which she's had a couple of times. She also had it in two 'waves', i.e. she thought that she was pulling through, and then she became sick again, and this time it was far worse and she really thought for a while that she was going to end up in the ICU. Fortunately one of her relatives who is a nurse, and had also caught the virus but was completely symptom free, volunteered to come and nurse her... so she actually gets more attention than she would in hospital. She's in her mid 30s, no underlying condition, normal BMI, healthy diet... She's a redhead though, and quite prone to whingeing! :)
Several of her relatives and friends work as nurses and they're exhausted. I don't think any of them have caught the virus but some of their colleagues did, a few of them symptomatic, and a handful got quite ill. It seems that most people are fine but for the few who get very ill, the outcome is much more often fatal than with the flu... and people need a lot more time to recover, even if they have not been curarised!
 
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Jon

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I always thought lectures were a fairly useless way of teaching any one any thing. When I was a student we had a lot of people who did not bother to turn up and still got decent grades.
100% with you here!

Thinking back to when I was at Uni when I was in a theatre with like 200 other students I don't remember learning anything that wasn't emailed to us later as a powerpoint presentation anyway!!
 

Jon

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explain something to me

we get the COMMUNITY R down to say 0.2-0.5 so then it would take you being around 4-5 people who are infected at the exact same time and at the point where it can be transmitted for you to catch it.

When we started this they say the R was 3 which is why it all went to hell in a hand basket but as we come out of lockdown in June/July and the community R is going to be so low surely the chances of this thing spreading again is very very low!
 

EdibleDormouse

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I always thought lectures were a fairly useless way of teaching any one any thing. When I was a student we had a lot of people who did not bother to turn up and still got decent grades.
In the late 80s, in a student house of eight, we'd take it in turns to get up early enough to go in for lectures with a tape recorder to record it for the rest of us to listen to, then sleep at the back of the lecture hall anyway. Our two music history lecturers thought this was absolutely brilliant (especially the one who usually delivered his class with a large Scotch in hand), so much so, they encouraged others to do the same whether they were present or not. We all did better than we had any right to or needed to, as we were all on a performance pathway with about 10% of our degree depending on music history essays.

The retro version of lectures delivered via Zoom where, presumably, you could record the damn thing and *cough* have your video link go down *cough*.

I do feel desperately sorry for September/October's intake of undergrads who have already had the hard work they put in for their A Levels absolutely trashed, and who are now going to miss out on the entire Fresher Experience.
 

EdibleDormouse

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explain something to me

we get the COMMUNITY R down to say 0.2-0.5 so then it would take you being around 4-5 people who are infected at the exact same time and at the point where it can be transmitted for you to catch it.

When we started this they say the R was 3 which is why it all went to hell in a hand basket but as we come out of lockdown in June/July and the community R is going to be so low surely the chances of this thing spreading again is very very low!
As I understand it - and I'm not a medic or statistician of any description (apart from loving numbers and how they work) - it depends on pockets of infection. The fractions work rather that for every 10 people who have the virus, given an R rate of 0.4, as it currently is in London, they will pass it on to four others.

The current pockets are places where social distancing can't be maintained for legitimate reasons, and where there are potentially asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic super-spreaders.

I'm hopeful that track and trace - as we dip into the high hundreds of tested new cases a day, potentially in the next two to three weeks - will smash R down to 0.2 or so, meaning you'd be massively unlucky to pick it up out in the wild unless you had direct and prolonged contact with those likely to be at a significantly higher risk.

However...

HOWEVER...

That depends on the following factors:
  • people with symptoms staying at home and requesting a test
  • people downloading the app, AND being willing to leave bluetooth on constantly and their devices unlocked in their bag or pocket (a big ask, especially given the access to your whereabouts and movement)
  • people being willing, if a pocket of infection springs up, to lockdown for a month or so at a time again
All of these things might be necessary for us to have anything resembling a life similar to the one we all had prior to late February again.
 

Jon

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This guy has kept me sane during this pandemic!
 

Elantos

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explain something to me

we get the COMMUNITY R down to say 0.2-0.5 so then it would take you being around 4-5 people who are infected at the exact same time and at the point where it can be transmitted for you to catch it.

When we started this they say the R was 3 which is why it all went to hell in a hand basket but as we come out of lockdown in June/July and the community R is going to be so low surely the chances of this thing spreading again is very very low!

R is an annoying number because there is more than one, but generally, R is proportional to the average rate of meeting an infected person which in itself is proportional to the average people you come in contact with and the number of infected in the population. We've drastically dropped R due to lockdown by reducing our contact with the infected which in turn reduces the number of infected people out there. With R less than 1, the virus will just die away over time. The time it takes for the virus to die away depends on the number of infected and for us, there are too many infected to maintain lockdown for long enough for the virus to go away like New Zealand has. Our economy has taken a huge hit already.

If you reintroduce contact by releasing lockdown without other measures, R goes up again very slowly at first as those with the infection will infect others again. You increase the number of infected in the population again and R will increase faster until it maxes out again. It may not be 3 though due to some having immunity. The track and trace should mean we take those with the infection out of the population so that we minimise contact with them and keep R below 1 long enough for the virus to go away. Whether we see a second peak really hinges on how well we can reduce cont when lockdown is fully lifted.

Lockdown wouldn't have been necessary had we kept R low by social distancing early. Of course that would require enough people to listen. The next best thing is track and trace which I hope will do the trick for us in the next few months.
 

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