Coronavirus Discussion So.... The Coronavirus / COVID-19

Topaz

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I had a looksee at the NHS track and trace app. It's only working for the IOW at the mo, but you can download it and have a look. It is very power hungry! It needs blue tooth on all of the time and if you dare to switch it off, it immediately pings up a message telling you to turn it on again. My battery went from 65% to 39% in about an hour when sat idle. Which begs the question, what's the point in the app, if everyone's battery goes dead after a couple of hours? Sort of defeats the object if everyone is carrying an unusable brick in their pocket. It should be re-named non track and trace lol.
 
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Sherliarty

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I had a looksee at the NHS track and trace app. It's only working for the IOW at the mo, but you can download it and have a look. It is very power hungry! It needs blue tooth on all of the time and if you dare to switch it off, it immediately pings up a message telling you to turn it on again. My battery went from 65% to 39% in about an hour when sat idle. Which begs the question, what's the point in the app, if everyone's battery goes dead after a couple of hours? Sort of defeats the object if everyone is carrying an unusable brick in their pocket. It should be re-named non track and trace lol.

I've heard this too! I imagine if this stays the case, most people will get frustrated and uninstall it. Do the apps used by South Koreans have the same problem? If not, can't we just adapt the one they use?
 
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Jon

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A lot of scientists saying they are worried about relaxing the rules a bit but again I can’t find any country that has done that and actually had a second spike!!
 

Karonher

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I think they waited for the right time and listened to their scientists. I cant help thinking this is to keep Dominic Cummings off the front pages and by and large it has worked. Also, it could take a few months for a new spike rather than a couple of weeks.
 

EdibleDormouse

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A lot of scientists saying they are worried about relaxing the rules a bit but again I can’t find any country that has done that and actually had a second spike!!

I'm not sure what to think. We've had a less strict lockdown than *most* other European countries (*stares hard at Sweden*), and I'm concerned about the sense of exceptionalism this government seems to want us to have about ourselves, especially as we have the worst death rate in Europe. We won't get through it "because we're British", but we will get through it if most of us do most of the right things most of the time.

However...we relaxed some restrictions two and a half weeks ago. The reduction in infections and the mortality rate has levelled off a little, but isn't rising. Yet. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I don't think we'll really get a clear picture until at least the end of July. If we're still dropping very slowly by then, I might be more optimistic about predicting the end of social distancing and perhaps even getting my job back one day. I'm also keeping an eye on hospital admissions, and they're still dropping steadily. I can't help feeling our infection rate is looking high because we're testing far more now. Again, we won't get a clear view of this until we've got at least two months of that 100k a day figure.

I was reading something fairly pessimistic earlier which seemed to indicate that we'd have to live with Covid-19 (and whatever comes after it) forever, and we'd have to accept it as a fact of life, and "something that kills you" alongside heart attacks, strokes, and cancer. The mortality rate would appear to be around 0.5-1% (although we still don't really know, and probably won't for a year to 18 months). If we've got 8000 new infections a day, that's 40-80 excess deaths from Covid-19 a day (and that's if the infection rate can be kept steady at 8000), so between 280 and 560 a week. The ONS is a fascinating source of all sorts of numbers for a maths geek like me - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths.
 

Sherliarty

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A lot of scientists saying they are worried about relaxing the rules a bit but again I can’t find any country that has done that and actually had a second spike!!

I guess time will tell but from what I can see, lockdown rules were relaxed in other countries when death numbers were much lower than ours! Spain was under 100 when they started whilst I think we were over 300 yesterday. South Korea has a fully operational and tested track and trace system whilst ours is........ :rolleyes:

I agree that things were probably brought forward a week or two due to the whole Cummings scandal, with Government saying look we are moving on instead of just firing him! There have been spikes in other countries but these have been local for instance, after restrictions eased, the Lombardy region saw infections rise to 1000 a day from a few hundred, but as they aren't allowed to travel out of the region, it didn't spread throughout Italy and cause a second wave.

We are in new territory so I think its hard to say what is the right choice, and personally, if you are vulnerable I would carry on being vigilant.
 
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EdibleDormouse

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Is this not just because the rest of europe doesn't include carehomes in their stats and we do?
That's true, but I don't think we've got anything to shout from the rooftops here. We've had 9,000 or so care home deaths in the UK. Other European countries have had in the middle hundreds. https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-coronavirus-in-care-homes

Anyway, this virus has still only been around for somewhere between 6 and 9 months. We're only just starting to get enough numbers together to not be comparing apples with oranges as it is. We're living in interesting times.
 

Karonher

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I don't understand how the numbers are produced. I have seen the figures of 8,000 new cases a day yet we are recording around 2000 or 3,000 a day.
 

fraserbooks

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I think it is a bit hit and miss if other countries include care home deaths. Belgium's figures look high because they include all probable deaths including in care homes. Most of Sweden's deaths have been from care homes though patients may have died in hospital. France reports care homes deaths if tested positive. I think a good figure to look at is excess deaths over the five year average and we are out in front with about 60,000 excess deaths for the year. Some of those might have died because of covid rather than of it. Russia has been reporting a suspiciously large number of deaths from community transmitted pneumonia. One of the London Universities has an app and is asking people to self report symptoms daily and they produce an estimate of people currently experiencing symptoms from that. It can't capture any one who is asymptomatic but might be infectious or children.
I think we won't know if we are going to get a spike in deaths after lock down is eased for about a month. It takes a week or so to incubate the virus and then about ten days to develop breathing difficulties if you are unlucky. Deaths often occur about two weeks later. I hope we are lucky and I think we have to restart the economy soon.
 

Jon

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the scientist made a good point at the conference today that if SAGE has say 1000 scientists in it they will all have different opinions and so what happens in 3 or 4 negative ones get quoted in the press and then it's all THE SAGE ADVICE SAYS WE SHOULD STAY AT HOME!!
 
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EdibleDormouse

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the scientist made a good point at the conference today that if SAGE has say 1000 scientists in it they will all have different opinions and so what happens in 3 or 4 negative ones get quoted in the press and then it's all THE SAGE ADVICE SAYS WE SHOULD STAY AT HOME!!
Agreed. Two scientists, three opinions. A fair few of them will be hoping to get funding off the back of research papers as well - that's not to say that they've necessarily got a hidden agenda here, just that if they don't get their funding then very few medical breakthroughs happen at all.

I think I'll listen to the middle path, i.e. we're not there yet, so wash your hands, keep apart, and don't be a bunch of dicks when you're out and about.
 

homie

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I don't understand how the numbers are produced. I have seen the figures of 8,000 new cases a day yet we are recording around 2000 or 3,000 a day.

I dunno. 8000 new cases a day might be a predicted amount based on the fact not everyone with it will display symptoms and get tested or be recorded.

The actual number of cases tested positive recently has, as you identified, been around 2000
 

Topaz

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I think I'll listen to the middle path, i.e. we're not there yet, so wash your hands, keep apart, and don't be a bunch of dicks when you're out and about.

I think the bunch of dicks have all come here! Both sides have got people in their back gardens, drinking, smoking, talking loudly, sitting right next to each other. Bear in mind these are little courtyard gardens, not huge plots.
Myself and my daughter are on the shielding programme. We don't feel safe to sit in our own back garden today.
I'm wondering if we'll be allowed out before Christmas at this rate. :confused:
 

hanna.obrien.79

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I am in Scotland where the rules haven’t been eased as much. My neighbour who is shielding had two different people in yesterday at two different times and then another family in today for a bbq. They stayed for so long that I know I wouldn’t be able to hold in a wee for that duration. This makes me mad as we’re financially sacrificing so much to keep people safe and ourselves and they can’t even follow the flipping rules. My kids keep asking why is there two cars parked outside peoples houses in the street etc etc. I just tell them that they should be content in the knowledge that they are following the rules. But jeez even the kids have noticed these bunch of dicks exist very close to home.
 
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Bugboybill

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the scientist made a good point at the conference today that if SAGE has say 1000 scientists in it they will all have different opinions and so what happens in 3 or 4 negative ones get quoted in the press and then it's all THE SAGE ADVICE SAYS WE SHOULD STAY AT HOME!!
According to Google there are 21 scientists on SAGE.
 

EdibleDormouse

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I think the bunch of dicks have all come here! Both sides have got people in their back gardens, drinking, smoking, talking loudly, sitting right next to each other. Bear in mind these are little courtyard gardens, not huge plots.
Myself and my daughter are on the shielding programme. We don't feel safe to sit in our own back garden today.
I'm wondering if we'll be allowed out before Christmas at this rate. :confused:
People are awful. I can hear the usual Saturday night loud party somewhere nearby, but that’s been going on every so often all lockdown. Not being able to sit out is bloody awful.

On a better note, I’d never noticed the beautiful rat in your profile picture before. I had four elderly rat men at the start of lockdown. I now have one lonely old buck. Am waiting until it’s safe to collect a bucket full of youngsters to perk him up!
 

Topaz

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On a better note, I’d never noticed the beautiful rat in your profile picture before. I had four elderly rat men at the start of lockdown. I now have one lonely old buck. Am waiting until it’s safe to collect a bucket full of youngsters to perk him up!

We don't have any rats at the moment, but we have had many beautiful boys over the years. The picture is Merlin the Manic. Its so sad when they pass away - they just don't live long enough.
Enjoy the popcorning youngsters when you get them. There's nothing like a rat snuggling down your top is there :)
 

EdibleDormouse

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We don't have any rats at the moment, but we have had many beautiful boys over the years. The picture is Merlin the Manic. Its so sad when they pass away - they just don't live long enough.
Enjoy the popcorning youngsters when you get them. There's nothing like a rat snuggling down your top is there :)
Rats Having Opinions on their favourite television programmes is brilliant (usually the preserve of old fellas). Rat companions on the sofa? The best.
 
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Topaz

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It looks like the Government are going to announce today that people that are shielding can go outside for exercise once a day providing that they social distance.
So, it looks like from tomorrow, we can leave the house and go for a walk for the first time in 11 weeks. It's going to be good, but scary!
 

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