Matched Betting Discussion The “offers dry up” theory

[Jon]

It’s rubbish isn’t it

Sign up offers are worth about £1000, once they are done they are done

reload offers are worth an unlimited amount of money with no end date

All you have to do is do then, they generally don’t take any longer than a sign up offer anyway so I don’t get

horse refunds, accas, 2up etc - it’s all just backing and laying, the same as the sign up offers!
Cheltenham week which is the Richest week all year for matched betting and can bring in £400+ over 4 days is nothing BUT reloads

We have so many Great tools we can use now to get offers done easily and 99% of the hard work is done for us. I remember when we first stared matched betting and were working out accas using a bloody spreadsheet lol

anyway the “offers dry up” thing just doesn’t make sense to me lol

 

[David Says...]

The value of matched betting can certainly drop over time, even if the offers don't dry up.

Sign-ups are an easy £1000 within a month, as you say. And it used to be fairly easy to yield around £400/mo without too much effort.

There are now few matched bet reloads. They've been replaced with conditional offers such as 2-up/88 min/2nd to SP fav which tilt the advantage more in the bookies' favour. Traders are far better at syncing odds with exchanges so good matches are a little harder to find.

Coupled with account churn/gubbings, casual matched betting doesn't pay anywhere near as much as it did even 5 years ago. That's not to say that doing the B365 £50 offers, some of the bet clubs, 2-UP, some accas and Chelts isn't worthwhile - just that the yield will be lower.

To make £500+ every month is more of a full-time endeavour, and not really sustainable as a 'career'. There's not enough cash in it anymore unless you multi-account, and the chances of gubbings are too great for most to place their future on.

My advice to a 20-year old me would be to cane the bookie offers until a kitty of £10K has been reached, then invest the cash in stocks and shares. That should provide a decent retirement fund. And then put any additional profit into seeding a business, be it ecom, blogging or something else, to fund life until retirement.

 

[Jon]

The value of matched betting can certainly drop over time, even if the offers don't dry up.

Sign-ups are an easy £1000 within a month, as you say. And it used to be fairly easy to yield around £400/mo without too much effort.

There are now few matched bet reloads. They've been replaced with conditional offers such as 2-up/88 min/2nd to SP fav which tilt the advantage more in the bookies' favour. Traders are far better at syncing odds with exchanges so good matches are a little harder to find.

Coupled with account churn/gubbings, casual matched betting doesn't pay anywhere near as much as it did even 5 years ago. That's not to say that doing the B365 £50 offers, some of the bet clubs, 2-UP, some accas and Chelts isn't worthwhile - just that the yield will be lower.

To make £500+ every month is more of a full-time endeavour, and not really sustainable as a 'career'. There's not enough cash in it anymore unless you multi-account, and the chances of gubbings are too great for most to place their future on.

My advice to a 20-year old me would be to cane the bookie offers until a kitty of £10K has been reached, then invest the cash in stocks and shares. That should provide a decent retirement fund. And then put any additional profit into seeding a business, be it ecom, blogging or something else, to fund life until retirement.

does anyone look at Matched Betting as a career thing?

Like would you have ever quit your full time job to do it?

I've been burned too many times with online earning ops that have fallen through the trap to ever do that with one income stream lol

 

[Bugboybill]

I used to be on a forum called The Gambling Times, and there were a few on there who gave up their jobs to do MB full time. I am still in irregular contact with one of those guys and he is back working as a van driver now and just tops his pay up with MB.

 

[David Says...]

does anyone look at Matched Betting as a career thing?

PA's forum used to have a few people claiming that they did MB full time, earning around £2K per month. That was probably achievable a few years ago - the only way that would be possible now would be to bet on almost every footie match and horse race, AND to be a VIP member of several bookies. And probably have multiple accounts.

Given that MB is tax free, £2K per month isn't awful - the equivalent pre-tax annual salary would be around £33K. At the same time that salary isn't great, and it's risky...

I think that it's important to be realistic about the potential returns, and weight up return on time invested. Some offers are worth it - but are bet clubs which offer a £10 free bet for 10 bets really worth it? The profit on that is probably £6 for an hour all-in.

 

[Jon]

Aye, I think as long as I make around £500+ a month from MBing (especially during the football season, more during Chelts month obvs) then I am happy. That's still £6000 a year tax free!

 

[rninja]

Interesting question. Things have certainly changed. MB becoming mainstream has resulted in bookies getting more astute with gubbings, odds offered and making offers less easy than previously.
What's changed? Hardly any acca inusrance left, few refund if 2nd horses, no Pricewise guaranteed prices, offers with tougher refund triggers.

If we're talking purely risk free MB, the reload offers are worth a few hundred a month now IMO.

I reckon the real value is now in building a bankroll doibg risk free offers, then taking on positive expected value opportunities - no lay each way horses, low risk casino, DDHH, no lay enhanced multiples, no lay Acca insurance etc.

 

[jkg-jkg]

There are now few matched bet reloads. They've been replaced with conditional offers such as 2-up/88 min/2nd to SP fav which tilt the advantage more in the bookies' favour. Traders are far better at syncing odds with exchanges so good matches are a little harder to find.

It is true that you might need to place bets further away from the event (and lay nearer) to try and get the matches to align (a risk depending how the odds move), but if you can keep the 2UP accounts you can make a nice profit. I am £150 up yesterday thanks to Man U getting their act together . A few of those a month and you are ticking over nicely.

PS - I have noticed a bit of a drop of in offers now the Fixed Odds betting terminals have been limited

 

[Jon]

I do wonder if it's just a mindset thing which goes along with a LOT of earning online where by if something isn't super dooper simple (as in a sign up offer) then it can be seen in your head as just being too complex to bother with lol

 

[David Says...]

It is true that you might need to place bets further away from the event (and lay nearer) to try and get the matches to align (a risk depending how the odds move)

That's effectively incorporating trading into matched betting, and certainly not for the novice. The point of matched betting is to mitigate risk. If a punter's risk appetite is high enough to do this then there's an argument to go further and not lay the bat, and trust that the edge is your favour.

It's not just a risk but it almost doubles the time it takes to do. The convenience offered by odds matching tools means that backs and lays can be made within seconds of each other. Having to log back in and calculate the lay means the return on time is lower.

I do wonder if it's just a mindset thing which goes along with a LOT of earning online where by if something isn't super dooper simple (as in a sign up offer) then it can be seen in your head as just being too complex to bother with lol

Perhaps, but if it's not super dooper simple then you have to weight up whether the time and effort is best placed doing this, or blogging, or drop shipping, or POD...

 

[homie]

Its not as lucrative as it was when I started 4 years ago

Acca insurance for example used to be up to £50. Be lucky to find £20 now, plus a lot of them require all the bets to settle on the same day now which rules out laying sequentially. Even the cash cow that is Bet365 have much tighter odds this year. I've only done a handful of 2ups this season because its so much harder to get a good match.

 

[Jon]

Its not as lucrative as it was when I started 4 years ago

Acca insurance for example used to be up to £50. Be lucky to find £20 now, plus a lot of them require all the bets to settle on the same day now which rules out laying sequentially. Even the cash cow that is Bet365 have much tighter odds this year. I've only done a handful of 2ups this season because its so much harder to get a good match.

still good money in horse racing offers I feel!

but then i guess the flip side of them is that can be quite 'hit and hope'

still it's all a shit load of tax free income we wouldn't have had otherwise lol

 

[The Reverend]

It’s rubbish isn’t it

Sign up offers are worth about £1000, once they are done they are done

reload offers are worth an unlimited amount of money with no end date

All you have to do is do then, they generally don’t take any longer than a sign up offer anyway so I don’t get

horse refunds, accas, 2up etc - it’s all just backing and laying, the same as the sign up offers!
Cheltenham week which is the Richest week all year for matched betting and can bring in £400+ over 4 days is nothing BUT reloads

We have so many Great tools we can use now to get offers done easily and 99% of the hard work is done for us. I remember when we first stared matched betting and were working out accas using a bloody spreadsheet lol

anyway the “offers dry up” thing just doesn’t make sense to me lol

Is it the 'risk free MB' bit that is drying up - everything else generally accepts a QL of some sort with the hope of activating a refund/bonus/etc.

 

[Jon]

Is it the 'risk free MB' bit that is drying up - everything else generally accepts a QL of some sort with the hope of activating a refund/bonus/etc.

A qualifying loss is still risk free though

Every the sign up offer ask you to accept a qualifying loss when doing the initial bet as you will make the money back and then some from the free bet!

 

[The Reverend]

A qualifying loss is still risk free though

Every the sign up offer ask you to accept a qualifying loss when doing the initial bet as you will make the money back and then some from the free bet!

a QL is risk free if the intial bet guarentees a free bet.

I think people have worked out that the initial MB (risk free) earning do max out, or massively reduce.

If they didn't, you'd expect people to not be giving up and keep making all the sweet, sweet cash.

Does anyone remember Donglemouse from the other place? I think they were making 20k a year through MB before they quit their diary. Pretty good going. And this was before all the services that do all the hard work for you.

 

[maccyb25]

The offers will always e there, it's a case of how hard you want to look for them. I've mentioned this before, but sharbing is still pretty damn lucrative. Especially if you live by multiple shops. I go in to town every morning and hit Bet Fred, he does several horse boosts per day in shop, but also does Best Odds Guaranteed etween 11 and 1 in shop. I will take as many of these as I can fund if i can get a decent match and always hit a few throughout the week, obviously, I try not to repeat shops when i can help it. Fred also still does his 50 quid acca in shop using the coupon, so doing these can be pretty lucrative too. Also there is the DDHH goal scorer in Freds too. Hills and Laddies also do loads of offers by mine, but you need the grid card for laddies.

 

[Bugboybill]

a QL is risk free if the intial bet guarentees a free bet.

I think people have worked out that the initial MB (risk free) earning do max out, or massively reduce.

If they didn't, you'd expect people to not be giving up and keep making all the sweet, sweet cash.

Does anyone remember Donglemouse from the other place? I think they were making 20k a year through MB before they quit their diary. Pretty good going. And this was before all the services that do all the hard work for you.

The diary Donglemouse wrote was what inspired me to try MB. So glad I did. Was a lifesaver for me!

 

[The Reverend]

The diary Donglemouse wrote was what inspired me to try MB. So glad I did. Was a lifesaver for me!

I first did MB due to the encouragement from that diary. It was amazing to read and reading between the lines, they had partner accounts (if not multiple) and I’m sure they made a much more than the diary outlined.

 

[homie]

There are some truly awful offers around at the moment though aren't there. I just received an email from Sportsnation Offering me 10% back of my losses as a bonus if I deposit £50 in casino and make at least a £10 loss. The bonus then has wagering too. Don't see how that is going to make me play in their casino.

On the other hand I'm loving the smarkets offer. An extra tenner every week just for laying the bets I was probably going to lay anyway. Runs until February too which is good, I though it was just for Christmas.

 

[BooBoo]

The current Smarkets £10 weekly refund offer is fantastic! I always lay far more than five PL games each week so it is really not much effort. Plus, no extra QL is incurred as I was betting on them anyway for weekly bet clubs etc.

Regarding the Bet365 £50FB offer that pops up once a month or so...I see that this is invite only. I never receive any emails or pop ups about it. Nor does it ever show in my promo page on their website.

TBF, I haven’t placed many bets with them after doing the sign up months ago. Do I need to keep putting on mug bets in order for them to let me in on the £50 bet offer that everyone raves about? There is a massive thread about it on PA and I feel left out Haha!

Has anyone got any advice or tips re Bet365? I know an ungubbed account with them is like gold, but I am not even using mine! They never seem to have any ‘bet and get’ type weekly offers or a bet club, unless I am missing something?