Matched Betting Specific Offer Question / Info Trading

Lemonade23

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Hi has anyone progressed from matched betting to trading? I've studied the markets a lot and am about six moths in but have a long way to go.
 

rninja

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I have done some trading. But my firm view is that 'sports trading' should only be done when you've identified an edge in a market and you've solid information that the market 'should' move in your favour.

Let's say you support a non-league football team and you know about player injuries/suspensions, etc which might give you an edge against the wisdom of the crowd (Betfair exchange price).

But it really grinds my gears to see bloggers/Internet marketers plugging 'sports trading'. Trading with no edge is gambling.

I actually prefer value betting.
If the odds available are better than the true odds, I'll back it. Short term variance, long term profit.
 

Lemonade23

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Yes it's by no means easy or as easy as some make out. I find it totally fascinating. If you can identify that edge and start to identify market patterns and get the staking/mindset right......there you go.
 

Xander

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I've been trading Tennis for around eighteen months, no value left in matched betting for me anymore.

After an awful start, I made all the mistakes everyone warned me about, It's pretty steady income now green most days.
 

Lemonade23

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I went that way with matched betting too. Eighteen months is a great timescale to be having consistency. I delved into tennis now and again but I just don't have the knowledge and it's too fast. I trade the cricket, much slower. Tests I find quite easy now but there aren't enough to make an income obviously so I'm trying to adapt my strategy to t20. Do you follow any traders or anything? I find podcasts are quite useful..
 

Xander

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Do you trade the IPL & Pakistani super league Cricket? I do both, google ' dew factor 'it's a huge part of results on the sub continent and can bring insane profits. Yea the Tennis markets move super quick but if you know your exit point and stick to it before you enter a trade it doesn't really matter.

I don't really follow any traders, a few of the staff on oddsmonkey are very knowledgeable and helped me loads at the start of my journey. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post links @Jon but I did come across a youtube channel that I wished I'd seen when I started trading Tennis they offer brilliant advice and tools for free.
 
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rninja

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This might be a contrarian view, but I don't believe in 'trading' as such. Why? I can't see how you separate luck from skill. How can you quantify that a 'winning' trading strategy is mathematically sound?...and not just a run of luck? Or the opposite.

And how can you turn a long term profit when betting against the wisdom of the crowd (Betfair exchange odds) with a 2% to 5% commission handicap?

Whereas if I'm value betting, I can benchmark a price against the exchange odds/other bookmakers/spread betting markets/historical data, etc.
 

Lemonade23

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@Xander Yes. I love the IPL, the CPL and the BBL. I struggle with the PSL though. I haven't got a handle on that one at all. I will check YouTube for the dew factor, it is something I consider but again don't know enough. I pick a lot up from commentaries and reviews but extra pointers are very welcome. Do you listen to Betfair's trading podcasts, those can be interesting. I wonder if you can share the YouTube channel , again the more resources the better. I'm just reading one of Mark Minnervini's books at the moment :)

@rninja I think on Betfair as well as the experienced traders you are also trading against mug punters. There's definitely money to be made. For example on a very basic level if you watch a sporting event live and watch the market at the same time you will start to notice that in certain situations the market always does the same thing. Always. It is just about catching "some" of that movement. It is about trying to enter and exit at the right time, about practise and mindset. About trading out when it goes wrong or when something unexpected happens. About making your gains bigger than your losses as everyone has some losses. That probably doesn't explain it very well ... but if you're a maths nerd like myself it is fascinating.

I can see the wisdom in value betting for sure...I haven't done it though, I think that takes a lot of skill too.
 
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Xander

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This is the youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrFBws2u3HTTlk290m2_ytQ/playlists ( @Jon please delete if it's not allowed. ) they have more in depth free stuff on their website.

I'm reading ' Way of the Turtle ' I don't usually go in for trading books or podcasts as everyone seems to have contradicting advice but lots of people have recommended this book and it is very good.
 
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Lemonade23

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Thanks for the YouTube link and the book recommendation! I'd read about the Turtle traders if that is what you call it in one of the Market Wizards books so I will definitely put that book on my Christmas list, if I can wait that long :) I bet you were gutted that Wimbledon was cancelled in the pandemic, there seems to be a lot of tennis streaming on Prime but the delay is quite variable isn't it. Sometimes I find the cricket streams quicker on the radio or once or twice YouTube, only once or twice mind, was ahead of the Betfair markets for the cricket. I should have capitalised on that more than I did but I was pretty new to YouTube streaming at the time and I've not seen it happen again.
 

Xander

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Bet365 is the best site for Tennis, they're usually only 4 or 5 seconds behind, having said that they've been slow this week. With the cricket I've found DAB radio best, for IPL matches so much quicker than streaming.
 
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Xander

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Yea I've only found Radio 5 in the UK, they usually have both the days IPL matches, Guerilla Cricket is wonderfully entertaining but no faster than other streaming services.
 
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Jon

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Does a radio station you could access via TuneIn radio not cover these sports?
 

Xander

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Yea probably but I think they're internet based?, with DAB you can be 10 - 30 seconds ahead of streams and most mug punters, if you're using trading software it provides ideal oppurtunities to queue a bet
 

Jon

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Yea probably but I think they're internet based?, with DAB you can be 10 - 30 seconds ahead of streams and most mug punters, if you're using trading software it provides ideal oppurtunities to queue a bet
yeah good point there would probably be a bit of a delay
 

Mark Davies

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This is something I have been looking into for some time, a way of getting ahead of the bookie somehow (via DAB radio for example). This is the holy grail!

I absolutely cleaned up on bet365 last year and made thousands but quickly got gubbed. Basically i was watching these geeks play fifa on the esports section and the odds were slower in updating than the stream i was viewing on their website. This has since been fixed now as they have added a long delay on inplay bets on this market.
 
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Xander

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Yea spot on, the Chinese bookies used to be really slow to update their in play odds on darts, baseball, rugby and cricket ( William Hill used to be super slow on the cricket too ) but unfortunately most of them have pulled out of the UK market now.

I trade and watch a lot of Tennis and have seen people kicked out even nowadays for courtsiding.

Downside is the bookies will work out what you're doing and shut you down very quickly. Any consistent or big wins will draw attention to your account the key is to stay under their radar, losing accounts very rarely get looked at.
 
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Mark Davies

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Interesting to here you trading on tennis still. I noticed bookies dont offer next point odds in- play anymore, what markets are you trading on?
 

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