Matched Betting Specific Offer Question / Info Trading

Xander

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I trade on BFEX now, match odds only. I use geeks toy so I know exactly where the money is and it's quicker placing bets than Betfair. Rather than arbs I look for market over reactions, Raducanu during the US Open was insane she was returning the ball early and her opponents couldn't cope with it, tennis players start slowly and she did in all her matches market over reacted odds went crazy as she was always the underdog but once she got going the odds returned to where they should be. Happens a lot in Cricket too if there are a couple of early wickets or boundaries.
 

Mark Davies

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I trade on BFEX now, match odds only. I use geeks toy so I know exactly where the money is and it's quicker placing bets than Betfair. Rather than arbs I look for market over reactions, Raducanu during the US Open was insane she was returning the ball early and her opponents couldn't cope with it, tennis players start slowly and she did in all her matches market over reacted odds went crazy as she was always the underdog but once she got going the odds returned to where they should be. Happens a lot in Cricket too if there are a couple of early wickets or boundaries.

Hope you didnt get burnt on Raducanu last week. Not sure what BFEX is to be fair but good luck anyway!
 

Xander

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Made a nice profit on young Radacanu, she's been partying like a 90's wild child since she won the US open, she was never going to win. Andy Murray's been making me a few quid this week too wee mans rolling back the years.

BFEX is Betfair exchange.
 

Mark Davies

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Made a nice profit on young Radacanu, she's been partying like a 90's wild child since she won the US open, she was never going to win. Andy Murray's been making me a few quid this week too wee mans rolling back the years.

BFEX is Betfair exchange.

Haha i had a hunch she would lose too. I presume you are watching the matches while trading?
 

Xander

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Yea, Bet365 streams them all and you can watch for free.

Yesterday was my best day so far, 3 favourites all lost the 1st set and went on to win the next 2. ' Lay set 1 winner ' is a tennis trading strategy well worth googling, if the underdog wins the 1st set and the favourite has been competitive it can bring huge rewards.

Some good matches tonight in both the men's and women's draw at Indian Wells.
 

Xander

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Just to show both sides of trading, yesterday was a bummer, cashed out for a 30% loss on Nikoloz Basilashvili when he looked like he was going to lose in the 2nd set. He did turn it around and went on to win the match, as the pre match stats suggested but I'd reached my exit point so had no option except take the hit. Leylah Fernandez lost too almost 2 million traded on her so I reckon a few took a much bigger hit than me.
 

Mark Davies

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I thought you may have had a decent win on the Fognini Tsitipas match? It followed the trend of underdog taking the first set and then the favourite taking over to win the match
 

Xander

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Yea I thought about it tbh but wasn't in the right frame of mind, Basilashvili lost the first set to the underdog and took the next 2 so that followed the trend. It's easy to fall into the trap of gambling and chasing losses rather than trading the stats and market over reactions, sometimes it's better to just walk away.
 

fajita

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I'm interested in trading, but I know nothing about sports and it looks like you need a decent amount of knowledge to earn from it :p I saw it as a natural progression from matched betting which is coming to an end for me
 

Xander

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I'm interested in trading, but I know nothing about sports and it looks like you need a decent amount of knowledge to earn from it :p I saw it as a natural progression from matched betting which is coming to an end for me
I trade Tennis mostly, except for a basic understanding of the rules I knew next to nothing 18 months ago. For me it's all about researching the stats, pre match and in play, I've had a very profitable morning my pre match research on Tommy Paul said he'd win comfortably and when the market over reacted to the possibility of him losing the 1st set I was able to lock in a huge risk free bet on him and Heather Watson has just taken the 2nd set after losing the first for a nice wee profit too, the pre match stats said she'd get well beaten but the in play stats showed her 1st serve, 2nd serve and return stats were getting stronger and stronger and I managed to lock in a nice sum when she took the 2nd set.

If you have an Oddsmonkey sub they have some brilliant threads on trading. This is an awesome site, run by one of the Oddsmonkey guys and totally free at the moment https://www.tradeninja.co.uk/ .

Trading's defo not easy or a get rich quick scheme, I'd suggest paper trading until you are making consistent ( paper ) profits and then only very small stakes when you go live increasing them slowly.
 

fajita

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I trade Tennis mostly, except for a basic understanding of the rules I knew next to nothing 18 months ago. For me it's all about researching the stats, pre match and in play, I've had a very profitable morning my pre match research on Tommy Paul said he'd win comfortably and when the market over reacted to the possibility of him losing the 1st set I was able to lock in a huge risk free bet on him and Heather Watson has just taken the 2nd set after losing the first for a nice wee profit too, the pre match stats said she'd get well beaten but the in play stats showed her 1st serve, 2nd serve and return stats were getting stronger and stronger and I managed to lock in a nice sum when she took the 2nd set.

If you have an Oddsmonkey sub they have some brilliant threads on trading. This is an awesome site, run by one of the Oddsmonkey guys and totally free at the moment https://www.tradeninja.co.uk/ .

Trading's defo not easy or a get rich quick scheme, I'd suggest paper trading until you are making consistent ( paper ) profits and then only very small stakes when you go live increasing them slowly.
Yes that's been the reason I haven't started yet as I haven't had the time to dedicate to learning it properly!! I'm on PA although I'll be cancelling soon - I'll check tradeninja out, thanks :)
 
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rninja

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Trading is a zero sum game, unless you've identified a consistent edge. Even then, the market arbitrage away any edges in time.
Hugely risky IMO
 

Xander

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I was a wee bit annoyed this morning at spending so much on our Christmas food order but Ruud taking the 2nd set against Rublev has more than paid for it. Don't tell the Missus tho as I'm supposed to be taking some time off.:rolleyes:
 
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