World Cup strategy

[Parselmouth]

I want to make the most of the WC as I haven't been doing a lot of matched betting since the footy season ended. I have noticed that most of the pre WC offers are on overall results, outright winner, highest scorer, all that. And of course they tend to be at high odds which would tie my money up for weeks.

So what's the best strategy? Take up any of those offers or wait until it starts and just do matchplay offers?

 

[Jon]

I want to make the most of the WC as I haven't been doing a lot of matched betting since the footy season ended. I have noticed that most of the pre WC offers are on overall results, outright winner, highest scorer, all that. And of course they tend to be at high odds which would tie my money up for weeks.

So what's the best strategy? Take up any of those offers or wait until it starts and just do matchplay offers?

I know it's a pain but I've just sort of accepted that my money is going to be tied up for a few weeks.

HOWEVER, remember that if you bet on say, Australia to be outright winner and they go out in the group stages then the exchange will have given your money back at that point, not on the 14th of July.

 

[jkg-jkg]

Remember also that the exchange generally only takes the liability for the worst case scenario so you will at least only have one (maximum) liability rather than all of them adding up.

You could also do a riskier strategy of not laying, and/or doing the calculations for dutching. Last time someone from outside the top 8 won is middle of last century (Uruguay in 1950 - and they were one of the Big 8 then anyway I think), so a strategy of dutching the top 8 is a possibility (making sure Russia is one of them as home teams always have an advantage - think 1966 and 1998). Due to boosts and free bets etc, I already have money on 8 different teams so I am considering it myself

 

[ted]

Share your concerns.
Feel I might actually be better off limiting my pre tournament offers to 1 or 2. Royal Ascot and no doubt some other sporting events run during the WC and might be more profitable?

I'm not sure,. The temptation is certainly there to just go for it.

 

[homie]

Share your concerns.
Feel I might actually be better off limiting my pre tournament offers to 1 or 2. Royal Ascot and no doubt some other sporting events run during the WC and might be more profitable?

I'm not sure,. The temptation is certainly there to just go for it.

I've stuck an extra £500 in smarkets for this very reason.

 

[Karonher]

I am putting extra in the exchanges and accepting that I wont see it again for a while. Bad timing as my contract has finished 6 weeks early and there is not likely to be much else in that time.

 

[unicornrider]

I also am holding back a bit as I know Royal Ascot will hold some deals too, I had some extra money in my WH account from free spins so I did the winner and goal scorer with that, I might punt it but I can lay it close to the time, I did back and lay my Skybet WC offer and I am going to do the Comeon one. The rest don't do much for me and I want to have some money spare for in tournament offers and Ascot as I don't have a massive bank roll. PaddyPower sent me a nice bet £10 on horses get £5 on football offer today and it good be able to take it up even though I am only in my second month of MBing.

 

[Jon]

I swear last year we had a fantastic Royal Ascot in terms of Matched Betting.

 

[Christine2]

I have had to borrow extra money....i dont want to miss offers and regret later

 

[Mark Davies]

So in regards to the Will Hill offers, what team/player have you all been betting on?

Surely its not just about the best matches with the exchange but also who gives you the best chance of getting free bets?

 

[jkg-jkg]

Surely its not just about the best matches with the exchange but also who gives you the best chance of getting free bets?

So Yes and No. The close odds are usually on the top 6 ish anyway, and particularly with the top goalscorer the winner isn't usually the favourite anyway so it's a bit of a lottery, so close odds is almost as good as 'using your knowledge' . With all the offers and boosts I've already got money on 7 of the top 8 anyway for the Winner market, and will probably have bets on 4 or 5 of the top goalscorer before the off. For the Winner market if you are going for just one team it is difficult to see outside Brazil or Germany (particularly considering Brazil's result against Austria), but you never know with the World Cup as someone always comes from left field.

 

[Mark Davies]

So Yes and No. The close odds are usually on the top 6 ish anyway, and particularly with the top goalscorer the winner isn't usually the favourite anyway so it's a bit of a lottery, so close odds is almost as good as 'using your knowledge' . With all the offers and boosts I've already got money on 7 of the top 8 anyway for the Winner market, and will probably have bets on 4 or 5 of the top goalscorer before the off. For the Winner market if you are going for just one team it is difficult to see outside Brazil or Germany (particularly considering Brazil's result against Austria), but you never know with the World Cup as someone always comes from left field.

Thanks for the response.

Matched betting aside, I have not been impressed with Germany and predict an early exit for them. I know it is the German way to save their best for the big tournaments but for some reason I have a hunch they are going to struggle.

Back to Matched betting, I think backing Spain to win in the knowledge you will get a £5 free bet for each time they win is a great bet. This is considering they are in a group with Iran and Morocco, which you would expect are two guaranteed wins for starters.

 

[jkg-jkg]

Back to Matched betting, I think backing Spain to win in the knowledge you will get a £5 free bet for each time they win is a great bet. This is considering they are in a group with Iran and Morocco, which you would expect are two guaranteed wins for starters.

Just remember who they play first though - That match is likely to decide the winner of the group and the loser may have their confidence hit. Having said that the other two opponents are pretty poor, so you are probably guaranteed £10 in free bets. Also remember you have a daily boost with WH and usually they still pay out free bets on boosted bets.

 

[Jamke]

Betfred Price boost is on at the moment. England boosted to 3.0, Smarkets lay of 2.54. Max £100

 

[Parselmouth]

Has the sacking of the Spain manager thrown a spanner in the works, or will it not affect them much?

I have a couple of bets on so far, from pre Tournament bet and get offers, but not really gone to town or thought very much about my strategy. I'm sitting down now to firm up any pre tournament bets but I'm thinking I'm just going to hold onto my reserves and play as I go rather than tie up big amounts for small reward. Needing to keep enough in hand to do Ascot as well.

All good fun.

 

[jkg-jkg]

Has the sacking of the Spain manager thrown a spanner in the works, or will it not affect them much?

Their "Winner" odds went out on the exchanges when the announcement was made, but have come back in a bit since, and their odds on the Portugal match have actually gone down rather than up. But in this world who knows.