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Matched Betting Discussion Cheltenham Festival 2022 Matched Betting Offers
- Thread starter Knopfler
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Pbrail
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Sorry, I'm going to disagree with Jon here. With a £300 bankroll, it's unlikely that you'll be able to double that because of the amount of liability you won't be able to cover - even by sharing liability.
You'll only be able to make small stakes on many races will lots of horses at big odds (with perhaps 1 short priced favourite) - even a low amount like a £20 bet on a horse at 8.0/9.0 means in the region of £160 liability, which sounds ok in theory, because with shared liability you could get on a number of horses in the same race...except that you also need money in a bookie to make those £20 bets with.
So even if you put £20 bets on, all under 8.0, at 5 bookies - that's £260 of your £300 tied up on 1 race. If none of the horses win, it'll all go to your Exchange - in which case you've only got £40 free to place new bets at bookies with. If one of your horses wins, the money will be split between Exchange and the bookie, shared liability will minimise the loss from the Exchange but the money is now all either in the Exchange or a single bookie - once again, leaving you with £40 available to place new bets with plus a bet at whichever bookie your bet won at.
If you have Paypal connected to your bookies you might be able to free up some cash fairly quickly within the day, but realistically with having to move money around, you'd probably only get on 2 races a day or more races with smaller stakes. Which is still going to be profitable, but not £75 quid a day profitable.
I'm all for touting the wonders of Matched Betting, but I think people forget sometimes how difficult it can be to juggle things with a small bank and no cash flow.
You'll only be able to make small stakes on many races will lots of horses at big odds (with perhaps 1 short priced favourite) - even a low amount like a £20 bet on a horse at 8.0/9.0 means in the region of £160 liability, which sounds ok in theory, because with shared liability you could get on a number of horses in the same race...except that you also need money in a bookie to make those £20 bets with.
So even if you put £20 bets on, all under 8.0, at 5 bookies - that's £260 of your £300 tied up on 1 race. If none of the horses win, it'll all go to your Exchange - in which case you've only got £40 free to place new bets at bookies with. If one of your horses wins, the money will be split between Exchange and the bookie, shared liability will minimise the loss from the Exchange but the money is now all either in the Exchange or a single bookie - once again, leaving you with £40 available to place new bets with plus a bet at whichever bookie your bet won at.
If you have Paypal connected to your bookies you might be able to free up some cash fairly quickly within the day, but realistically with having to move money around, you'd probably only get on 2 races a day or more races with smaller stakes. Which is still going to be profitable, but not £75 quid a day profitable.
I'm all for touting the wonders of Matched Betting, but I think people forget sometimes how difficult it can be to juggle things with a small bank and no cash flow.
I think the one occasion (at the moment) where this is different is the first race. There are a load of offers (Coral, Sky, Betway, Ladbrokes, William Hill that I can think of off the top of my head) on that race. If you do a different horse for each offer the total liability at the exchange (using the same exchange) will only be the largest single liability. You will of course need to be lucky with all the horses losing otherwise you are going to be light in the exchange
Pbrail
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Yes, but you're forgetting about the Back Stake.
You need money to make the bet at every bookie as well as at the Exchange. I saw the estimated math to do the WH lockin on PA and that required around £160 Liability but also required a £70 stake at William Hill to do it. The Ladbrokes offer is half of that again.
The next horse with the lowest odds is virtually double the price of Getabird so the liability won't change much plus you need the back stake for the Ladbrokes offer which presumably will be around £35 (guessing, not looked at the calculator for that).
Coral needs a £25 stake.
Sky needs a £20 stake.
Betway £10.
So you need £160 for your Back bets alone to do those 5 offers - more than half your bankroll.
To be on 4 different horses the third & 4th horses odds are 11.0 - that's at the bookie, not the exchange - so again, your liability isn't going to go down a huge amount because not only are those bets for only £20 & £25 each, they will be done at SNR to lock in the profit
Ofc, it can be done with lower stakes, but then you'd not be able to squeeze out £75 profit and your money is almost certainly going to be in lockdown somewhere regardless.
Which is ultimately my point. You can make a profit with a £300 bank, but when races have 1-2 horses at low odds, but the rest at high odds then shared liability is only going to get you so far.
That all said, I'd be more than happy for TinkyTonky to come along Friday night and rub my nose in it that I was wrong
You are not wrong with your numbers. If you only have £300 then you have to cut your cloth a bit differently. The first race is a Novices race and the favourite doesn't win that one often, so although those of us with large bankrolls will probably go Getabird @ WH (and then Second Fav @ Lads), I think a good alternative strategy would be £25 coral on Getabird (maybe underlaying a bit as you get £25 FB back), £20 Sky on second fav, Lads and WH on the next 2 and Betway on an outsider so £80 in the bookies and max liability of £160 ish say.
PS Genting have a £20 back on first losing bet offer too.
Pbrail
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I have noticed over the years that bookies like to boost favourites, I mean how many times does Betfred boost a horse to above 6/1? Hardly ever. Fred is simply drawing money to the favourites and rebalancing the book.
The bookies have 'Traders' these days so they are usually selling off something they bought at a higher price anyway (or as you said need to get rid of)
Sorry if this is a stupid question but how do you make a profit from a bet that offers a free bet if the favourite in the race wins? I'm new to all this just got my head round the back and lay and have been doing loads on the horses I've been getting free bets from pp and coral from betting there weekly amount and getting a free bet for it. I noticed in one of Jon's posts that he said it's best to place your bets after 9am I start work at 8.30 and work till 5pm can anyone give me a few tips on how I can still make a profit at Cheltenham please I don't want to miss out just cause of work I have a lunch break so can place some bets then as well.
If you place your bets before 9:00am tomorrow that world will carry on spinning and you'll still make lots of money so don't worry about that.
In terms of the offers where you get a refund if the SP fav wins the race I would hold off on doing those ONLY on races where there is a clear favourite and just have a 'hit it and hope' approach with it
I think we're at over £100+ in free bets on the first race so far let along all the offers that were on at the weekend where placing a £20 bet gets you £10 free bet for chelts.
Lots more offers here for Day 1
http://forum.profitaccumulator.co.uk/topic/32186/cheltenham-day-1-index
Cant see a daily thread yet on OM, just this for the week:
https://community.oddsmonkey.com/to...51.1071502400.1519035060-777787889.1497292246
https://community.oddsmonkey.com/to...51.1071502400.1519035060-777787889.1497292246