Coronavirus Discussion So.... The Coronavirus / COVID-19

Jon

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Has anywhere got its second outbreak / wave yet?
you could say America but I’m not even sure they’ve rode out the first one yet!
 

Karonher

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Japan and South Korea have had minor ones requiring restricting movement again. Australia are about to do the same in one area. The figures in Germany have been rising again although nothing being done yet.
 

Jon

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How do they define a second wave!

Is a spike / second wave not a constant rise in cases of a set period so not a lull or reduction and how many days would it have to be over?
 

EdibleDormouse

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I think we're going to see bumps here and there. I would have thought a second wave would be a consistent rise over a period of a fortnight or so of new cases and/or hospitalisations. So hard to tell, though. We're being told it's relatively "safe" out there now - is it? Really?
 

Karonher

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They have considered it bad enough to close certain areas before it spreads. Forgot to add China and that has been referred to as a second wave. I don't know how many will constitute a second wave for most countries but once the r number gets above 1 I would imagine that it when it could start.
 

homie

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There have been no second waves. Anywhere
 

Karonher

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Second wave: A phenomenon of infections that can develop during a pandemic. The disease infects one group of people first. Infections appear to decrease. And then, infections increase in a different part of the population, resulting in a second wave of infections.

This is what has happened in China. Started in Wuhan seemed to clear and has now appeared in Beijing. Its no where near previous second waves in pandemics but this could well be because action is being taken right away.
 
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Jon

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Second wave: A phenomenon of infections that can develop during a pandemic. The disease infects one group of people first. Infections appear to decrease. And then, infections increase in a different part of the population, resulting in a second wave of infections.

This is what has happened in China. Started in Wuhan seemed to clear and has now appeared in Beijing. Its no where near previous second waves in pandemics but this could well be because action is being taken right away.
So would you say it’s unfair to compare coronavirus second waves then with say the Spanish flu second waves which everyone and their dog seems to be doing lol
 

Karonher

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I definitely -would say so and hope that's the case. Didn't the second wave of Spanish flu kill more than the first? I would think that as there are more localised outbreaks then areas will be shut down or restricted. That has seemed to work in South Korea and Japan.
 

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There won't be a proper second wave as authorities, companies and people are wary and hence will take precautions to prevent it. A lot of companies are allowing workers to work from home for the foreseeable future especially if they are vulnerable. And many people I know are still choosing to limit going out in crowds etc, all of this kind of behaviour will help prevent a second wave even if restrictions are relaxed further including the 2m rule.

I know on the whole the young don't suffer too badly from the virus but I would like to know at what age does it become dangerous for them, 40, 45...? The creation of a vaccine is still the best option for returning to normality especially as they suspect immunity is only about a year.
 
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Jon

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All those 2m apart posters in shops are going to need to be redone to 1m I would imagine on the 4th!!
 

Karonher

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There are so many people already acting as if nothing happened. Groups drinking in Woolton Village - and that is one of the nicer parts of Liverpool and people picking things up and putting them down in Aldi. First time I had been in a shop other than the corner shop for three months and it will be a while before I go again.
 

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I've not seen anything about Iran on the news recently, but Iran's having a "second wave" if you can call it that. They had a dip in deaths but it's on the rise again. It could still be part of the first wave though as my colleagues in Iran are saying the government's been under-reporting deaths for the last few months.

I think for the Spanish flu, the infection rate dropped low and stayed low for a good month or two before a second peak began to form, so Iran's second peak looks a bit off anyway.
 

fraserbooks

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I volunteer in a charity shop and we have been trying to get our heads round the new rules. We have to quarantine stock for 48 hours so one of our local shops will become a donation depot for two days a week. There will be a lot of redundancies in the charity sector as they have lost so many donations with events like the London marathon cancelled and all their shops closed.
 

homie

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I know on the whole the young don't suffer too badly from the virus but I would like to know at what age does it become dangerous for them, 40, 45...?

around 70
 

Elantos

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Interesting read today about what constitutes a second wave and Iran


I guess since they never really brought it under control (~1000 cases a day at it's lowest point), it's not really a second wave. Judging by the timeline though, they literally opened everything in the span of two weeks? Seems a little fast and R probably shot above 1 fairly quickly.

I think currently, over 70 is high risk. For 50-70, you might end up in hospital if you have severe symptoms and require intervention but you're still very likely to survive. They've now learnt that your chance of survival drops significantly if you're put on a ventilator so they are only doing that as a last resort now. Doctors have become better at treating covid-19 so even IF cases do go up for us later, the number of deaths will still remain low (hopefully).
 

MIch21

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I was on the train yesterday - and the compulsory face mask is not working at all. There was a lot of people not wearing one and no staff monitoring.
 

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